Muenzaniso: Mutsara weParoli
Madhora gumi panhema, anopetwa kaviri mushure mekukunda kwega kwega, otorwa mushure mekukunda katatu kwakatevedzana. Martingale yakapindurwa, kutenderera nekutenderera.
Sesheni yeParoli yakasimulatwa yekutenderera 80. Kurasikirwa gumi nekutatu pakutenderera kwekutanga, mitsara makumi maviri nemina yakaputsika uye matatu akapera akabhadhara $70 rimwe nerimwe. Pakupedzisira −$160 mushure mekunge takambokwira $50. Sisitimu inowanzorasikirwa uye isingawanzokunda, muchimiro chinofanotaurwa nemasvomhu.
Fambai nesisitimu
Kukunda kunofambisa nhanho imwe mberi. Kurasikirwa, kana kukunda kwechitatu, kunodzokera kwekutanga.
Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.
Hurongwa
Bhejai $10 panhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese →. Mushure mekukunda, siyai $20 ichienderera. Mushure mekukunda kwechipiri, siyai $40 ichienderera. Mushure mekukunda kwechitatu, torai $80 motangazve ne$10. Kurasikirwa chero kupi kunotangazve pa$10. Kuedza kwega kwega kunoisa $10 yemari yedu panjodzi uye kunokunda $70 kana nhema ikabuda katatu kwakatevedzana, zvinoitika (18/37)³ = 11.5% yenguva. Tinotarisira mutsara mumwe wakapera mukuedza kunenge kupfumbamwe.
Kutenderera 1–25
T N N T T N T N N T N N T T N T 0 N N N N T N N T. Kuedza gumi nekuviri: kuna kwakarasikirwa pakutenderera kwekutanga (−$10 kumwe nekumwe, kumwe kwacho kuzerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese →), kutatu kwakarasikirwa pakutenderera kwechipiri (−$10 kumwe nekumwe, nekuti $20 yaive mari yekasino pamwe neyedu), kuna kwakarasikirwa pakutenderera kwechitatu (−$10 kumwe nekumwe, nenzira imwe chete), matatu mamwe akapera pakutenderera 18–20 (+$70). Pakupedzisira −$40. Mutsara wakapera wakanzwika seuchapupu. Kukundikana gumi nekumwe hakuna kunzwika sechinhu, uye ndiwo chinangwa chemagadzirirwo.
Kutenderera 26–55
Matatu maviri zvakare, pakutenderera 28–30 ne37–39, rimwe nerimwe riri chikamu chemutsara wenhema ina watakatora mushure mematatu: nhema yechina yakakunda $10 itsva uye tsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → inotevera yakatora $20. Kuedza gumi nekushanu, pundutso muchikamu ichi +$10; huwandu hwese −$30; pamusoro-soro +$50 pakutenderera 39. Matatu matatu mukuedza 27 ndiyo 3.1 inotarisirwa; pamusoro-soro sesheni iri pamusoro ne$50 uye inonzwika senzira inoshanda.
- p10 −$780
- p25 −$510
- median −$210
- p75 +$90
- p90 +$370
Kutenderera 56–80
Kuedza gumi nekutatu kwekurasikirwa kwakatevedzana, kupfumbamwe kwacho pakutenderera kwechipiri kana kwechitatu apo mutsara wakaguma usina nhema imwe kana mbiri. Pundutso −$130 muchikamu ichi; mhedzisiro −$160. Mutsara wekukundikana uyu une mukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → unenge 20%, kureva kuti uchaitika kumutambi weParolinziraParoliProgression inokwira mushure mekukunda: petai kaviri mushure mekukunda, dzokerai pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu zvichitevedzana. Rimwe zita: reverse Martingale.Verengai zvese → inenge sesheni yega yega yechishanu yehurefu uhu.
Maakaundi
Mari yose yakabhejwa $1,460 mukutenderera 80 kuchienzaniswa ne$800 yemunhu anobheja $10 zvakaenzana: mitsara inowedzera mari yose yakabhejwamariMari yose yakabhejwaMari yese yakabhejwa musesheni kana munguva yakati, kusanganisira mari yakakundwa yakabhejwazve. Mamwe mazita: handle, action.Verengai zvese →. Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → pa$1,460 i$39; −$160 chaiyo iri pasi pestandard deviationmasvomhuStandard deviationMudzi wesikweya wemusiyano; chinhambwe chakajairwa chemhedzisiro kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa.Verengai zvese → imwe, hazvishamisi. Munhu anobheja zvakaenzana aive padivi pedu aive nekutarisira kumwe chete padhora uye mhedzisiro ine inenge hafu yekuzunguzika.
Zvinoratidzwa nesesheni
Paroli iMartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese → yakapindurwa: inorasikirwa yunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe kazhinji uye inokunda mayuniti manomwe pano neapo, panzvimbo pekukunda yuniti imwe kazhinji yorasikirwa makumi matanhatu nenhatu pano neapo. Kugovera hakuna njodzi yakawanda nekuti nhamba huru kukunda, kwete kurasikirwa, uye mari yakabhejwa haimbopfuuri $40 iyo $10 chete iri yedu. Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa padhora hakuchinji. Ndiyo sisitimu iri nani kumutambi anoda musiyanomasvomhuMusiyanoChiyero chekuti mhedzisiro yakapararira zvakadii kutenderedza kukosha kunotarisirwa. Wakakwirira pastraight up, wakaderera pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana.Verengai zvese → pasina mawere, uye ichiri kudya 2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwa.
Mibvunzo
Mana akatevedzana i5.6% uye anobhadhara $150. Chinangwa kungoravira; chikamu chekasino chakafanana pachinangwa chega chega.
Kwete. Mushure mekukunda kumwe $20 iri patafura ndeyenyu. Paroli inonzwika seisingadhuri nekuti kurasikirwa nemutsara hakuratidziki sekurasikirwa nemari yenyu. Asi ndizvo.
Kutarisira kumwe chete, mari yakabhejwa yakakura kupfuura yose idiki, hapana mawere emuganho wetafura. Iri nani munzira dzese kunze kweiya yakakosha, isingachinji.
Kuseka zvishoma
Rasikirwa zvishoma kazhinji, kunda zvikuru kashoma. Martingale yakapindurwa, nemutengo mumwe chete.
Zvinyorwa
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.