Kukosha kweNhamba dzeOngororo
“Ine kukosha” zvinoreva kuti hazviwanzoitika pavhiri rakarurama, kwete kuti “ndezvechokwadi” uye kwete kuti “zvinopa purofiti”.
p-value ye0.05 inoreva kuti vhiri rakarurama raizoburitsa maitiro akarerekera zvakadai kamwe chete muna makumi maviri. Kana mukatarisa mavhiri makumi maviri, rimwe richapasa nemhanza.
Chii chinonzi p-value
MukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wekuona kutsauka kungangoita kukuru sekwakaonekwa, dai vhiri rakarurama. Chirevo pamusoro pedata pasi pekufungidzira, kwete pamusoro pevhiri. p-valueongororop-valueMukana wekuona kutsauka kwakakura zvakaenzana kana kupfuura kwakaonekwa dai vhiri rakanga rakarurama.Verengai zvese → ye0.03 inoti: vhiri rakarurama rinoita izvi 3% yenguva. Hairevi kuti: pane mukana we97% kuti vhiri rinotsauka. Chirevo chechipiri chaizoda kuziva kuti mavhiri anotsaukaongororoVhiri rinotsaukaVhiri rine zvikanganiso zvemuviri zvinoita kuti mamwe makomba ave nemukana unopfuura 1/37. Hazviwanzoitika, uye zvinoonekwa chete nekutenderera kwezviuru kwakanyorwa.Verengai zvese → akawanda zvakadii pakutanga, uye mukasino yemazuva ano ashoma zvikuru, izvo zvinoita kuti mhedzisiro imwe chete ine kukosha ive mhanza kupfuura chiwanikwa.
Kuenzanisa kwakawanda
Bvunzo yega yega yamunoita pavhiri rakarurama ine mukana we5% wekupasa padanho re5%. Edzai mavhiri makumi maviri uye rimwe rinopasa. Edzai vhiri rimwe munguva makumi maviri dzakasiyana uye imwe inopasa. Edzai sampuru imwe nemaronga 37 egombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese →, maronga matanhatu ezvikamu zvevhirivhiriChikamu chevhiriRutivi rwemakomba akatevedzana pavhiri, rwakasiyana neboka riri patafura yekubhejera.Verengai zvese → nemaronga matatu emavara uye chimwe chinhu chinopasa. Mushonga kusarudza bvunzo musati maona data, kuiita kamwe chete, uye kusimbisa nedata idzva. Kuongorora kunowana vhiri “rinotsauka” kazhinji ndiko kwakaburitsa mhedzisiro yacho.
Kukosha kuchienzaniswa neukuru
Sampuru huru zvikuru inogona kuita kuti kutsauka kudiki kuve nekukosha. Gomba rinorohwa pa1/36.5 pane 1/37 chikanganiso chechokwadi chaizosvika pakukosha mukutenderera kwemamiriyoni mashoma uye chaizoramba chichirasikirwa nemari pamubhadharomariMubhadharoZvinodzoserwa nebheti rakunda, zvinotaurwa se“X kusvika ku1” pamusoro pemari yakabhejwa inodzoserwa.Verengai zvese → we35 kusvika ku1. Chinokosha kumutambi ukuru hwemhedzisiro: pane gomba rinorohwa pa1/36 kana zviri nani here, uye nezvakadii? Chi-square inokuudzai nezvevhiri; chiyero chekurohwa chete ndicho chinokuudzai nezvebheti.
Power
Chimwe chikanganiso kusaona kutsauka kuripo. Nekutenderera 1,000, gomba riri pa1/30 (kutsauka kukuru zvikuru) rinoonekwa chete ingangoita hafu yenguva padanho re5%. Saizi yesampuru, kwete ungwaru, ndiyo inogadzirisa izvi. Peji reSaizi yeSampuru rinopa nhamba.
Chiyero chinoshanda
Kuti chirevo chekutsauka chinakidze: bvunzo yakasarudzwa pamberi, p < 0.01 pane 0.05, kudzokorodza pasampuru yakazvimirira yehukuru hwakafanana, uye chiyero chekurohwa chinofungidzirwa pamakomba anofarirwa che1/34 kana zviri nani mushure mekudzokorodza. Chiyero ichi chakasvikwa kashoma munhoroondo yemutambo uye hachina kumbosvikwa, sekuratidza kwezvinyorwa zveruzhinji, pavhiri remazuva ano rinochengetwa.
Mibvunzo
Tsika kubva kuma1920. Hapana chakakosha pairi; 0.01 ichiyero chine musoro kana muchiongorora mavhiri mazhinji.
Ringangove risiri kuburitsa mhedzisiro yakaenzana. Ingava mhedzisiro yemutambisi, kukanganisa pakunyora kana dambudziko rekuisa data. Dzokorodzai.
Kwete. Inokuudzai kuti kugovaniswa hakuna kururama. Ongororo yeZvikamu zveVhiri neukuru hwemhedzisiro ndizvo zvinokuudzai kuti kupi.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Vhiri rakataurwa rine zerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese → mbiri rakaita kuti dozenibhetiDozeni1–12, 13–24 kana 25–36, rinobhadhara 2:1.Verengai zvese → rekutanga ribude ka742 pakutenderera 3,000. Ndeyestandard deviationmasvomhuStandard deviationMudzi wesikweya wemusiyano; chinhambwe chakajairwa chemhedzisiro kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa.Verengai zvese → ngani pasi peavhareji, uye vhiri rakatendeka raizozviita kangani?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Anenge standard deviation 8.1 pasi. Vhiri rakatendeka raizozviita kamwe chete pakuedza kunenge 3 × 10¹⁵, kureva kuti hazvimboitiki. Mhinduro yakabudiswa nemubvunzo inoti 11.75; isu tinowana 8.07.
Dozeni rekutanga rine 12 pamakombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → 38. Pakutenderera 3,000 rine avhareji ye3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 yekubuda, nekupararira kwe√(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
742 iri 205.4 pasi peavhareji: 205.4/25.5 = kupararira 8.07.
Vhiri rakatendeka rinosaririra nekupararira kutatu kamwe chete pakuedza kunenge 740; nekupararira kusere, kamwe chete pa3 × 10¹⁵ (bell curve, divi rimwe). Kufunga kuti muverengi akaona dozeni rakaipisisa pane matatu hakuchinji chinhu chinokosha. Mhedzisiro yakadai inoti vhiri, kana kuverenga, kwakakanganisika. Pavhiri rine zero imwe kuverenga ikoko kumwe chete kwaizova kupararira 9.0 pasi (avhareji 973.0, kupararira 25.6).
Kuseka zvishoma
Vhiri rimwe chete pamavhiri makumi maviri akarurama “rine kukosha”. Ndizvo zvinorehwa nenhamba iyi.
Zvinyorwa
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, mibvunzo yeRoulette.