Ngano: Nzira yeRoulette Inogara Ichikunda
“Ndine sisitimu inokunda 80% yenguva.” Mungava nayo. Ichiri kurasikirwa nemari.
Sisitimu inogona kuita kuti masesheni ekukunda ajairike. Haigoni kuita kuti kukosha kunotarisirwa kuve pamusoro pezero, nekuti bheti rega rega rainoisa riri −1/37 yemari yaro yakabhejwa uye kukosha kunotarisirwa kunowedzerana. Masisitimu anonyanya kukunda kakawanda ndiwo anonyanya kurasikirwa kana arasikirwa.
Zvinotaurwa
Kutenda: kumwe kunhu kune nzira yeRoulette inogara ichikunda, sisitimu yekuchinja mari dzinobhejwa zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura inoshandura Roulette kuva mutambo unokundwa. Humbowo hunopiwa: mutsara wemasesheni ekukunda, vhidhiyo yemakundiro eRoulette nguva dzese, uchapupu, spreadsheet yevhiki rine mhanza. Zvinotaurwa kazhinji zvakatendeseka; munhu anozvitenda nekuti zvanga zvichishanda.
Sei zvisiri izvo, mumutsara mumwe
Kukosha kunotarisirwamasvomhuKukosha kunotarisirwaMhedzisiro yepakati pabheti rimwe nekufamba kwenguva refu. −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa pabheti rimwe nerimwe reEurope rakajairwa.Verengai zvese → kunowedzerana. Kana bheti rimwe nerimwe riine EV = −1/37 yemari yaro yakabhejwa, nhevedzo ipi neipi yemabheti ine EV = −1/37 yezvose zvakabhejwa, zvisinei nemutemo wakasarudza mari dzinobhejwa. Sisitimu mutemo wekusarudza mari dzinobhejwa. Naizvozvo sisitimu yega yega ine EV = −1/37 yemari yose yakabhejwamariMari yose yakabhejwaMari yese yakabhejwa musesheni kana munguva yakati, kusanganisira mari yakakundwa yakabhejwazve. Mamwe mazita: handle, action.Verengai zvese →. Iyi itheorem (Doob naHalmos vakaipupura muma1930s; Thorp 1969 anotaura mamiriro ayo), uye haina zvisingabatanidzwi zvemitemo yakangwara. Mamiriro chete akakodzera kuzivikanwa ibheti shoma: muenzaniso waThorp unobheja $1,000 patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →, ndokuzoita masendi 90, ndokuzoita masendi 9 zvichingodaro, zvichidzikira nekusingaperi. Nemukana we18/37 bheti rekutanga rinokunda uye mutambi anoramba ari mberi zvachose, kunyange mhedzisiro inotarisirwa ichiri −1/37 yezvese zvakabhejwa. Mari shoma yetafura chaiyo inomisa izvozvo, uye nayo tariro yese yekuramba uri mberi munguva refu.
Sei zvichiita sekunge zvinoshanda
MaProgressionnziraProgressionMutemo upi zvawo unochinja mari yekubheja zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura. Maprogression anokwira mushure mekurasikirwa anoikwidza kana mukarasikirwa; maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda anoikwidza kana mukakunda.Verengai zvese → akaipa anoita kuti masesheni ekukunda ajairike. MartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese → kubva pa$10 pamuganho we$500 inopedza zvinosvika 80% zvemasesheni ekutenderera 100 iri mberi nemayunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → mashoma. Mutambi anoiita kwemasesheni makumi maviri anokunda gumi nematanhatu awo uye anorangarira izvozvo. Masesheni mana ekurasikirwa rimwe nerimwe rinorasikirwa kupfuura zvinowanikwa nemasesheni gumi ekukunda, uye masvomhu emasesheni makumi maviri ari pasi pezero. Sisitimu haina kuchinja avhareji; yakatamisa kurasikirwa kuenda kumasesheni mashoma, makuru apo zviri nyore kuzviti mhanza yakaipa.
Bvunzo inogona kuitwa nemunhu wese
Simulator yeNzira dzeRoulette pawebhusaiti ino inotamba masesheni 10,000 esisitimu ipi neipi, kana kodhi yenyu, musekondi imwe. Isai sisitimu yamunotenda mairi moverenga avhareji. Dai avhareji yaiva pamusoro pezero pamarongero api neapi, peji rino raizodaro. Marongero ese, masisitimu ese, miganho yetafuratafuraMuganho wetafuraBheti diki nerikuru kupfuura ese anobvumirwa. Rikuru ndiro rinomisa maprogression ekupeta kaviri.Verengai zvese → yese zvinopa avhareji iri −2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwa pamwe neruzha. Uchapupu masampuru emunhu mumwe; simulator masampuru ezviuru gumi.
Sisitimu isingagoni kurasikirwa
Muna 1997 munyori wepoker Mike Caro akaburitsa sisitimu yeRoulette sejee, uye Gambling Times yakaiburitsazve muna 2001. Irondedzero yemabheti ekunzvenga: kwete tsvuku kana nhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese →, isina kuenzana kana yakaenzana, kana mazerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese →; kwete nhamba tsvuku dzisina kuenzana uye kwete nhema dzakaenzana; uye hapana pa30, kana pamutsara murefu wemakombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → kubva pa11 sewachi kusvika pa14 pavhiri reAmerica. Isai mitemo iyi pamwe chete uye hapana nhamba inosara. Makomba chete ari kunze kwemutsara iwoyo 0, 28, 9, 26, 30 ne2; 30 yakarambidzwa nezita, uye dzimwe zero, yakaenzana nenhema, kana isina kuenzana netsvuku. Mutambi anotevera sisitimu iyi haambobheji uye haamborasikirwi. Chikamu chayo zero, uye ndiyo chete sisitimu yeRoulette yakatendeseka pamasvikiro ayo ipapo.
Masisitimu ane mazita, mutsara mumwe chete rimwe nerimwe
Masisitimu anotengeswa nezita, kana sefomula yekukunda paRoulette, haana kusiyana. Imwe neimwe iseti yemabheti, uye bheti rega rega rinobhadhara vhiri 2.70% yaro. Bollman (2024) anoshanda akati wandei pavhiri reAmerica, apo rimwe nerimwe rinodhura 5.26%; heano pavhiri reEurope.
Shanduro yakatendeseka
Masisitimu anochinja chimiro chesesheni: kuti munokunda kangani, kuti kukunda kwakakura sei, kuti chakaipisisa chakaipa sei. Idzo sarudzo chaidzo uye mutambi angada chimwe chimiro pane chimwe. Zvisingachinjwi nemasisitimu mutengo, uri 2.70% yezvese zvinobhejwa, uye nekuti maprogression anobheja zvakawanda kupfuura kubheja kwakaenzananziraKubheja kwakaenzanaKubheja mari imwe chete pakutenderera kwega kwega. Chiyero chinoenzaniswa nacho progression yega yega.Verengai zvese →, anobhadhara zvakawanda zvawo.
Mibvunzo
Mwedzi mitanhatu yemasesheni evhiki nevhiki inenge masesheni 25. Martingale inokunda 80% yawo. Masesheni ekurasikirwa ari kuuya, uye akakura.
Mutemo wekumira unoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa saka unoderedza kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese →. Hauite kuti kuve pamusoro pezero.
Kwete pavhiri rakarurama. Pavhiri rinotsaukaongororoVhiri rinotsaukaVhiri rine zvikanganiso zvemuviri zvinoita kuti mamwe makomba ave nemukana unopfuura 1/37. Hazviwanzoitika, uye zvinoonekwa chete nekutenderera kwezviuru kwakanyorwa.Verengai zvese →, iro dambudziko refizikisi, kwete sisitimu.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Sisitimu yekuseka yaMike Caro ya1997 yevhiri reAmerica inorambidza tsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → nenhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese →, dzisina kuenzana nedzakaenzana, nemazerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese →; nhamba tsvuku dzisina kuenzana nenhema dzakaenzana; nhamba 30; uye gombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → rega rega mumutsara kubva pa11 kuenda kurudyi kusvika pa14. Shandisai mitemo imwe neimwe panguva. Nhamba dzipi dzinosara dzekubheja?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Hapana. Sisitimu haimbobheji, saka chikamu chekasino chayo chiri zero chaiyo.
Kurambidza tsvuku, nhema, dzisina kuenzana, dzakaenzana nemazero kunosiya nhamba imwe neimwe nemapoka madiki pakati pe1 ne36.
Pasina tsvuku dzisina kuenzana uye pasina nhema dzakaenzana, panosara tsvuku dzakaenzana (12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34, 36) nenhema dzisina kuenzana (11, 13, 15, 17, 29, 31, 33, 35): nhamba gumi nenhanhatu. Kurambidza 30 kunosiya gumi neshanu.
Pavhiri reAmerica mutsara kubva pa11 kuenda kurudyi kusvika pa14 unovhara makomba 32 pa38. Matanhatu ari kunze kwawo ndi0, 28, 9, 26, 30 ne2. Dzose gumi neshanu dzakasara dziri mukati memutsara, saka mutemo wekupedzisira unodzibvisawo. Sisitimu isingambobheji ndiyo chete isingambororasikirwi, ndiyo yaiva pfungwa yaCaro.
Kryptos inotamba maMartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese → matatu panguva imwe, rimwe pavaviri vega vega vemabheti emubhadharo wakaenzanabhetiBheti remubhadharo wakaenzanaTsvuku/nhema, isina kuenzana/yakaenzana, dzepamusoro/dzepasi. Nhamba 18, rinobhadhara 1:1.Verengai zvese → (dzepamusoro kana dzepasi, dzisina kuenzana kana dzakaenzana, tsvuku kana nhema), nemari dzekubheja 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 nekumira mushure mekurasikirwa kutanhatu. Torai rimwe pane matatu pavhiri reEurope. Rinorasikirwa mabheti ose matanhatu kangani, denderedzwa rimwe rinowana marii paavhareji, uye ichocho chikamu chakadii chemari yakabhejwa?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Rinorasikirwa ose matanhatu kamwe chete pamadenderedzwa anenge 55, 1.83% yenguva, uye izvozvo zvinodhura mayunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → 63. Paavhareji denderedzwa rinorasikirwa anenge mayuniti 0.17 pamayuniti 6.42 akabhejwa: 2.70%, mutengo webheti rega rega pavhiri.
Bheti rinorasikirwa nemukana we19/37, zero ichisanganisirwa. Matanhatu akateverana: (19/37)⁶ = 0.0183, anenge 1 pa55, uye ipapo mari dzakabhejwa 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 = 63 dzaenda. Kana zvisina kudaro denderedzwa rinopera nekukunda uye +1 yuniti.
Avhareji: 1 × (1 − 0.0183) − 63 × 0.0183 = 1 − 64 × 0.0183 = −0.17 mayuniti.
Mari yakabhejwa: bheti rekutanga rinogara richiiswa, rechipiri chete mushure mekurasikirwa, zvichidaro: 1 + 2 × (19/37) + 4 × (19/37)² + … + 32 × (19/37)⁵ = mayuniti 6.42. Uye −0.17/6.42 = −2.70%.
Kutenderera kutanhatu kwakanyorwa kunongosarudza kuti bheti rega rega riri kudivi ripi, uye vhiri harigoni kukuziva. Kutamba ose matatu kunopeta katatu mari yakabhejwa uye kurasikirwa kwepaavhareji pamwe chete nayo. Bollman (2024) anoshanda sisitimu iyi pavhiri reAmerica, uko rimwe nerimwe rinorasikirwa katanhatu kwakateverana 2.1% yenguva.
Kuseka zvishoma
Kukunda kakawanda nekuwana mari inhamba dzakasiyana.
Zvinyorwa
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette.
- Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed.