Nzira · Progression inokwira mushure mekurasikirwa · 9 min

Nzira yeMartingale paRoulette

Nzira yeMartingale paRoulette inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega uye inodzokera kubheti rekutanga mushure mekukunda. Kukunda kwega kwega kunodzosa kurasikirwa kwese kwakapfuura pamwe neyuniti imwe yekutanga. Peji iri pazasi rinoratidza zvazvinoita kumari yekutamba, uye kuti sei zvisingagoni kuchinja kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa.

Mhinduro pfupiHairikundi vhiri. Senzira yekupeta kaviri paRoulette, Martingale inounza kukunda kudiki kwakawanda nekurasikirwa kukuru dzimwe nguva. Pakutenderera kupi nokupi, kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa kuchiri 2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwa, uye nekuti progression inobheja mari zhinji, kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa pasesheni yega yega kwakakura kupfuura kwekubheja kwakaenzana, kwete kudiki.

Sisitimu yeMartingale paRoulette inoshanda sei?

Rasikirwai, mopeta kaviri. Kundai, modzokera kubheti rekutanga. Ndiyo sisitimu yese. Nebheti rekutanga re$10 nemuganho wetafura we$500 nhevedzo inopera mushure mekurasikirwa kutanhatu. Koramu yekupedzisira mukana wekusvika panhanho iyoyo pabheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, apo kurasikirwa kwega kwega kune mukana we19/37.

kurasikirwa #bheti rinoteverayose yaiswa panjodzip(kusvika)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Bheti rekutanga $10, muganho wetafura $500. Mushure mekurasikirwa kutanhatu bheti rinotevera $640, pamusoro pemuganho: progression inotyoka $630 yarasika. Mukana wekurasikirwa kutanhatu kwakatevedzana patsvuku (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, kungangoita kamwe chete mukuedza 55.

Fambai nesisitimu

Kurasikirwa kunopeta kaviri mari yakabhejwa. Kukunda kunodzokera kwekutanga.

bheti rinotevera1mhedzisiro kusvika parizvino0kutenderera0

Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.

Sesheni inoratidzika sei?

Nhanho diki dzekukwira, mobva mava nemukoto. MuMartingale yeRoulette mutsara wega wega wakapera wekupeta kaviri unowedzera bheti rimwe rekutanga, saka mutsetse unokwira zvishoma nezvishoma. Mutsara unosvika pamuganho we$500 unotora $630 kamwe chete: nhanho 63 dzacho.

Masesheni gumi eMartingale, bheti rekutanga $10, muganho $500mhedzisiro vs kutanga

masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, bhuruu yakajeka median, masampuru 83 akachenuruka · fambisai pamusoro pechati kuti muone maquantile pakutenderera

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
median −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · y-axis yakachekwa kusvika papercentile ye1–99 (magumo −$1,000 kusvika +$2,640) · kutenderera 500 · $10 kutanga · mubhadharo wakaenzana

Mutsetse wega wega isesheni imwe yemabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana kubva pamari yekutamba ye$1,000. Kukwira kwakareba, kudonha kamwe kamwe.

Nhanho diki dzekukwira, mobva mava nemukoto unodzitorera dzese kamwe chete.

Simulator

Marongero ega ega anotamba masesheni 2,000 yemabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana kubva pamari yekutamba ye$1,000. Mhedzisiro inochinja ipapo ipapo.

Bheti rekutanga

Muganho wetafura

Kutenderera pasesheni

Mhedzisiro yemasesheni · masesheni 2,000 · kutenderera 100 · $10 kutanga · $500 muganhokurasikirwa ← | → purofiti

−$1,000$0+$650

isai mbeva pabhawa · mabhawa matsvuku masesheni ekurasikirwa, egirinhi ekukunda, bhawa rakachenuruka rinoyambuka $0

masesheni ane purofiti

40.8%

mhedzisiro yepakati (median)

−$130

mhedzisiro yeavhareji

−$66.44

progression yakatyoka

59.3% yemasesheni

percentile ye5

−$1,000

median yekudonha kwemari kukuru

−$650

Masesheni mazhinji anopera ari mberi zvishoma (40.8%), ndizvo zvinokwezva. Avhareji iri pasi pezero (−$66.44) nekuti masesheni ekurasikirwa makuru: progression yakarova muganho wetafura mu59.3% yemasesheni. Mubheji anobheja zvakaenzana ne$10 pakutenderera kumwe chete kunotarisirwa kurasikirwa nezvinenge $27.

Mutsara wekurasikirwa unouya kangani

Bheti remubhadharo wakaenzana pavhiri rezero imwe rinorasikirwa kutenderera 19 pa37. Mutsara wega wega mukana wekuti kutenderera kwakatevedzana kwakapihwa kwese kurasikirwe, uye zvakarasikirwa nemutambi weMartingale, anopeta kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega, panguva iyoyo.

Bheti rekutanga

kurasikirwa zvakatevedzana	mukana	kanenge 1 pa	zvarasika kusvika pari zvino	bheti rinotevera
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Mukana i19/37 wakawanzwa nawo pachawo kamwe pakurasikirwa kwega kwega, kuverengwa kubva pakutenderera kumwe kwakapihwa. Sesheni refu ine kutenderera kwakawanda panogona kutanga mutsara wakadai, saka mumanheru ose zvinogoneka zvikuru kupfuura zvinoratidzwa nemutsara mumwe.

Mutsara wekurasikirwa gumi neshanu unouya kamwe chete mukuedza 22,000. Izvo zvinonzwika zvakachengeteka. Hazvina kudaro, nezvikonzero zviviri. Kutenderera kwega kwega kunotanga kuedza kutsva, uye manheru ane kutenderera kwemazana. Uye hapana anosvika pagumi neshanu: kubva pabheti rekutanga re$10 muganho we$500 unopedza kupeta kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kutanhatu, kunouya kamwe chete mukuedza 55.

Sei isingagoni kuchinja mikana?

Kukosha kunotarisirwa kunowedzerana. Kana bheti rimwe nerimwe riine tarisiro ye−2.70% yemari yaro yakabhejwa, saka nhevedzo ipi neipi yemabheti, zvisinei nekusarudzwa kwemari yakabhejwa, ine tarisiro ye−2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwa. Kusarudza mari yekubheja kunogona kuenderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura; hakugoni kuenderana neinotevera.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ inosarudzwa kutenderera i kusati kwaitika; Xᵢ = ±1 yakazvimirira kubva ku bᵢ

Kusanzwisisa kwakajairika

“Munongoda kukunda kamwe chete kuti mudzose zvese.”

Ichokwadi mukati meprogression inopera. Progression isingaperi, nekuda kwemuganho wetafura kana mari yenyu yekutamba, inorasikirwa nenhevedzo yese, uye nhevedzo iyoyo yakakura nemaumbirwo ayo.

“Nemari yekutamba yakakura zvakakwana haigoni kutadza.”

Muganho wetafura unomisa kupeta kaviri kare mari zhinji dzekutamba dzisati dzapera. Pasina muganho, mari yekutamba inodiwa inokura zvakanyanya (exponentially) asi purofiti pacycle imwe neimwe inoramba iri yuniti imwe yekutanga.

“Kurasikirwa kutanhatu kwakatevedzana hakugoneki.”

Patsvuku kunoitika pa1.83% yezvikamu zvekutenderera kutanhatu. Musesheni yekutenderera 200 munowanzoona mutsara mumwe chete wekutanhatu.

Kuseka zvishoma

Kukunda kudiki kwakawanda, kurasikirwa kukuru kumwe kusingawanzoitiki. Uye munobhadhara chikumbiro imi pachenyu.

Mhedziso yemasvomhuSisitimu yeMartingale muRoulette inotsinhanisa mukana mukuru wekukunda kudiki nemukana mudiki wekurasikirwa kukuru. Iinshuwarenzi yakatengeswa yakapindurudzwa: munounganidza premium diki husiku hwakawanda uye munobhadhara chikumbiro chikuru chisingawanzoitiki imi pachenyu. Inowedzera mari inobhejwa pasesheni yega yega, saka inowedzera kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa pasesheni yega yega. Haideredze uye haigoni kuderedza chikamu chekasino. Kana mukashandisa nzira yeMartingale paRoulette zvakadaro, zivai panotyoka sisitimu yenyu pachine nguva: nebheti rekutanga re$10 nemuganho we$500, ndiko kurasikirwa kutanhatu kwakatevedzana, chiitiko che1.8% pakuedza kwega kwega. Onai Kutonga mari yekutamba uye Muganho wekurasikirwa / muganho wekukunda.