Zvimwe · Dzidzo · maminitsi 7

Roulette neDzidzo yeMasvomhu

Q: Zvakakodzera vadzidzi vezera rechikoro here?

Nemari yekutamba uye nekujekesa kuti chikamu chekasino ndicho chidzidzo, makosi mazhinji atoshandisa madhayisi nemalotari; Roulette ishanduro yakapfuma yechinhu chimwe chete.

Vhiri reRoulette rinoita kuti mukana uve nyore kufungidzira. Heino nzira yekurishandisa muchidzidzo musingakurudzire kubheja.

Mhinduro pfupi

Mhedzisiro makumi matatu nenomwe dzine mukana wakaenzana, mibhadharo yakatarwa, kuzvimirira, kutarisira kwakaipa kunozivikanwa uye nhoroondo refu yevanhu vachikanganisa. Roulette inoratidza kutarisira, musiyanomasvomhuMusiyanoChiyero chekuti mhedzisiro yakapararira zvakadii kutenderedza kukosha kunotarisirwa. Wakakwirira pastraight up, wakaderera pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana.Verengai zvese →, mutemo wenhamba hurumasvomhuMutemo wenhamba huruAvhareji yemhedzisiro yakazvimirira inoswedera kukukosha kunotarisirwa sezvo huwandu hwekuedza huchikura.Verengai zvese →, kukanganisa kwemubheji, kuedza hypothesis nedambudziko rezuva rekuberekwa zviri nani kupfuura mari yesimbi kana madhayisi.

sample space

37, yakaenzana

pfungwa dzinofukidzwa

≥ 8

zvishandiso pawebhusaiti ino

zvemahara, mubrowser

chidzidzo zero

EV = −1/37, nguva dzose

Sei Roulette

Mari yesimbi ine mhedzisiro mbiri uye dhayisi nhanhatu; zvese zviri zviviri zvidiki zvikuru kuratidza dambudziko rezuva rekuberekwamasvomhuDambudziko rezuva rekuberekwaVanhu vangani vanodiwa kuti vaviri vangangova nezuva rimwe chete rekuberekwa, kana kuti kutenderera kungani kunodiwa kuti nhamba ingangodzokororwa. Pavhiri remakomba 37, kutenderera 8 kunokwana kuti mukana upfuure hafu.Verengai zvese → kana chi-square testongororoBvunzo yechi-squareBvunzo yenhamba inoenzanisa kuwira kwakaonekwa pagomba rimwe nerimwe neiyo inotarisirwa n/37. Inoshandiswa kutonga kana vhiri richitsauka.Verengai zvese → zvinonakidza. Kadhi remakadhi rine ndangariro. Roulette ine mhedzisiro 37 dzine mukana wakaenzana, mibhadharomariMubhadharoZvinodzoserwa nebheti rakunda, zvinotaurwa se“X kusvika ku1” pamusoro pemari yakabhejwa inodzoserwa.Verengai zvese → yakatarwa inoita kuti kutarisira kuve kuverenga kwemutsara mumwe, kuzvimirira kwakagadzirwa nemuviri wevhiri, uye chikamu chekasino chidiki zvekuti chinovanda musesheni asi chikuru zvekuti chinotonga gore rese. Ine zvakare mazana maviri emakore ezvikanganiso zvakanyorwa zvekuongorora.

Mari yesimbi, dhayisi nemakadhi zvinopa nzvimbo kumhedzisiro 37 dzeRoulette dzine mukana wakaenzana.

Bvunzo yeChi-Square

Hurongwa hwezvidzidzo

chidzidzopfungwamuenzaniso weRoulettechishandiso pawebhusaiti ino

1mukana sekuverengap(bheti) = n/37Calculator yeMikana yeRoulette

2kutarisiraEV = (n/37)(36/n − 1) − (37 − n)/37 = −1/37Muvaki weBheti

3kuzvimirira nemutemo wekuwedzanisa(18/37)² petsvuku mbiriMukana weMitsara yeMhedzisiro muRoulette

4complement uye “kamwe chete zvishoma”1 − (36/37)³⁷ = 63.7%Mukana muRoulette

5musiyano ne standard deviationσ = 5.84 (straight up) pane 1.00 (tsvuku), EV yakafananaMusiyano

6mutemo wenhamba huru (nezvausingatauri)avhareji inoswedera; huwandu hwose hunoparariraKuswedera kweNguva Refu

7kukanganisa kwemubhejinhema 26, 1913Kukanganisa kweMubheji

8random walks nekupera marifomula yegambler’s ruinCalculator yeNjodzi yeKupera Mari

9kuedza hypothesischi-square pamakomba 37Muongorori weKutsauka kweVhiri

10dambudziko rezuva rekuberekwakudzokororwa mukati mekutenderera 8, 56%Dambudziko: Vhiri reZuva reKuberekwa

11Monte Carlo simulationmasesheni 10,000 musekondiSimulator yeNzira

12sei masisitimu achikundikanalinearity yekutarisiraMungakunda Roulette Here?

Kudzidzisa pasina kudzidzisa kubheja

Shandisai mari yekutamba neMutambo weDemo, usina mari chaiyo. Tangai nekukosha kunotarisirwamasvomhuKukosha kunotarisirwaMhedzisiro yepakati pabheti rimwe nekufamba kwenguva refu. −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa pabheti rimwe nerimwe reEurope rakajairwa.Verengai zvese → uye ramba muchidzokera kwakuri: dzidzo yega yega inopera ne“uye kukosha kunotarisirwa kuri −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa”. Shandisai masisitimu semienzaniso inopikisa pane senzira: basa nderekuwana kukanganisa, uye simulator inoratidza kukanganisa kwacho mumasekondi. Isai nhoroondo yevanhu vakarasikirwa. Chidzidzo ndechekuti masvomhu anokunda, izvo zvakapesana neshambadziro.

Dzidzo dzinoshanda

Itai kuti vadzidzi vafungidzire kutenderera kungani kusvika nhamba yadzokororwa, vobva vamhanyisa Mutambo weDemo kagumi (dambudziko rezuva rekuberekwa). Itai kuti vanyore “sisitimu” mumupepeti wenzira vomhanyisa masesheni 10,000 (linearity yekutarisira). Itai kuti vaverenge mukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wemutsara wa1913 vozoverenga wemutsara uyu kuitika kumwe kunhu mumakore makumi mashanu eMonte Carlo (musiyano pakati pechiitiko chakatarwa nechimwe chiitiko). Itai kuti vawane gombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → “rinotsauka” munhoroondo yekutenderera kwakaenzana vozoshanduradza data (kuenzanisa kwakawanda).

Kuti pfungwa dzevadzidzi dzinokanganisa nekukurumidza sei (fungidziro dzakajairika dzekirasi pane chokwadi)

kutenderera kusvika kudzokororwa: fungidziro ≈ 19, chokwadi 8

8 pane 19

p(kubata ≥1 mukutenderera 37): fungidziro 100%, chokwadi 63.7%

63.7% pane 100%

p(tsvuku mushure metsvuku 10): fungidziro “shoma”, chokwadi 48.65%

48.65%

masesheni ari mupurofiti, Martingale: fungidziro ≈ 95%, chokwadi ≈ 78%

78% pane 95%

mhedzisiro yepakati, Martingale: fungidziro “yakanaka”, chokwadi yakaipa

yakaipa

050100

Mukaha wega wega chidzidzo. Wekupedzisira ndiwo kosi yese.

Kuverenga Nhoroondo Dzekutenderera Dzakaburitswa Kukosha kweNhamba dzeOngororo

Sei zvichinamatira

Vadzidzi vanoyeuka nhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese → 26, vhiri raJagger, uye nguva iyo simulator yakaratidza sisitimu yavo ichirasikirwa. Mukana usingaoneki unokanganwika pakuedzwa; vhiri harikanganwiki. Mutsara wetsika wakajeka: dzidzisai masvomhu anoita kuti mutambo uve bheti rakaipa, muchishandisa mutambo wacho, uye vadzidzi vanozobheja gare gare vachaziva mutengo zvishoma.

Vatambi veRoulette Vane Mukurumbira

Mibvunzo

Zvakakodzera vadzidzi vezera rechikoro here?

Nemari yekutamba uye nekujekesa kuti chikamu chekasinomasvomhuChikamu chekasinoChikamu chemari yega yega yakabhejwa chinochengetwa nekasino paavhareji: 2.70% muRoulette yeEurope.Verengai zvese → ndicho chidzidzo, makosi mazhinji atoshandisa madhayisi nemalotari; Roulette ishanduro yakapfuma yechinhu chimwe chete.

Mudzidzisi anofanira kutanga nepeji ripi?

Chikamu cheKasino muRoulette, kozoti Mutambo weDemo, kozoti Simulator yeNzira dzeRoulette.

Mutambo weDemo wakachengeteka mukirasi here?

Hauna mari chaiyo, hauna maakaundi uye hauna zvinongedzo kune vanoita makasino.

Kuseka zvishoma

Mhedzisiro makumi matatu nenomwe, chikamu chekasino chimwe, mazana maviri emakore ezvikanganiso zvekudzidza kubva pazviri.

Zvinyorwa

Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3rd ed., 1968. Gambler’s ruin, chitsauko XIV.
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Chitsauko 13, Roulette.

yakaongororwa 2026-09-28modhi: yeEurope, zero imwemaitiro ↗zvinyorwa ↗