Blaise Pascal: Ngano yeVhiri reRoulette
Nyanzvi yemasvomhu inowanzopiwa mbiri yevhiri, iyo yaiedza kugadzira chimwe chinhu.
Pascal (1623–1662) akaedza midziyo yekufamba isingaperi muma1650s. Vhiri rinotenderera risingakweshani rinonzi nderake rinogona kunge riri tateguru werotor yeroulette; kupiwa mbiri uku itsika kwete chinyorwa chakanyorwa.
Nyanzvi yemasvomhu
Blaise Pascal akagadzira calculator yemuchina aine makore gumi nemapfumbamwe, akaratidza zvibereko mugeometry yeprojective achiri jaya, akaita basa renheyo pamusoro pekumanikidza nevacuum, uye muna 1654, mutsamba naPierre de Fermat, akagadzirisa “dambudziko remapoinzi”: maitiro ekugovana zvakaenzana mari yakabhejwa yemutambo wemhanza wakamiswa. Mhinduro yavo, kugovana zvichienderana nemukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wemutambi mumwe nemumwe wekukunda dai mutambo wakaenderera mberi, ndiwo mavambo ekukosha kunotarisirwamasvomhuKukosha kunotarisirwaMhedzisiro yepakati pabheti rimwe nekufamba kwenguva refu. −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa pabheti rimwe nerimwe reEurope rakajairwa.Verengai zvese →. Kuverenga kwese kweEV pasaiti ino kunobva mutsamba idzodzo.
Pakanga pane muchina weroulette waBlaise Pascal here?
Pakati pema1650s Pascal akashanda pamuchina wekufamba usingaperi uye zvinonzi akagadzira vhiri rakaenzaniswa zvakanaka rakatenderera kwenguva refu pasina kukweshana kwakawanda. Nyaya yekuti vhiri iri rakava rotormidziyoRotorChikamu chevhiri chinotenderera chakatakura makomba.Verengai zvese → yeroulette inodzokororwa munhoroondo zhinji uye haina kunyorwa mune chero ipi zvayo yezvinyorwa zvekutanga. Zvinogoneka kuti vatungamiri vemaguta emaspa muzana ramakore rechi18 vakashandisa zita iri kuti vatengese. Hachisi chinhu Lab yaizobvuma pauchapupu.
Mukana, mumashoko ake nemumashoko edu
Tsamba dza1654 hadzitauri nezveroulette, yakanga isati yavapo. Dzinobvunza kuti: vatambi vaviri vanoda mapoinzi matatu kuti vatore hari; vanomira pa2–1; hari inofanira kugovaniswa sei? Mhinduro yaPascal inoshandisa zvatingadaidza nhasi kuti kutarisira kune mamiriro uye nharo inodzokorora ichidzika nemuti wezvingangoitika. Huygens akaverenga tsamba idzi uye muna 1657 akaburitsa bhuku rekutanga rekudzidza nezvekutarisira. Izwi rekuti “expectation” nderake.
Pascal naFermat vanogadzirisa dambudziko remapoinzi: kukosha kunotarisirwa semutengo wakaenzana wechinzvimbo.
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae: tsananguro yekutanga yakadhindwa yekutarisira.
Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi: mutemo wenhamba huru.
Roulette inotsanangurwa muParis. Mubhadharo wega wega ndi36/n − 1: EV = −1/37 (kana −2/38).
Bvunzo yechi-square yaPearson, yakaratidzwa pakutenderera kweroulette.
Zvese zviri pamusoro, pasaiti ino, mubrowser.
Bheji
Nharo yaPascal inonyanya kuzivikanwa pamusoro pekubheja haina chekuita neroulette asi naMwari: “wager” iri muPensées inoratidza kutenda sebheti rine mubhadharo usingaperi. Inharo yekukosha kunotarisirwa, uye ndiyo nguva yekutanga yekuti munhu shandise dzidziso yesarudzo kutsigira chimwe chinhu. Vatambi veroulette vanodaidza Pascal pamusoro pevhiri vari kudaidza Pascal asiri iye; anokosha ndiye akaratidza maitiro ekuisa mutengo pabheti.
Zvinoshamisa
Kunyange Pascal akagadzira kana kusagadzira vhiri rekutanga reroulette, mutambo uyu muenzaniso wakanaka webasa rake chairo: mudziyo unobva kumurume akaratidza kuti hamukwanise kuwana chimwe chinhu pasina (kufamba kusingaperi kunokundikana; kutarisira kunochengetedzwa), unoshandiswa kuratidza chinhu chimwe chete kuvatambi mamiriyoni mashoma pagore.
Mibvunzo
Aifamba nevanhu vekubheja muParis pakutanga kwema1650s, ndiko kuti dambudziko remapoinzi rakasvika kwaari kuburikidza neChevalier de Méré. Hapana chinyorwa chekuti akambotamba nemari zvakakomba.
Nekuti inyaya yakanaka uye nekuti vashambadzi vemakasino vezana ramakore rechi19 vaiida. Idzokororei mune footnote.
Kuseka zvishoma
Akaratidza kuti hamukwanise kuwana chimwe chinhu pasina. Ipapo mumwe munhu akavaka kasino pamusoro pazvo.
Zvinyorwa
- Pascal, B. & Fermat, P. Correspondence on the problem of points.
- Huygens, C. De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae.
- Kavanagh, T. M. Dice, Cards, Wheels: A Different History of French Culture.