Masvomhu · Pfungwa huru · 7 min

Kukosha Kunotarisirwa muRoulette

Kukosha kunotarisirwa muRoulette imhedzisiro yeavhareji yebheti dai maigona kuridzokorora nekusingaperi. MuRoulette yeEurope kwakafanana kubheti rese rakajairwa: munorasikirwa ne1/37 yemari yakabhejwa yega yega, paavhareji, pakutenderera kwega kwega.

Nemutauro uri nyore

Fungidzirai kuisa bheti rimwe chete re$10 patsvuku kakawanda kemiriyoni. Kumwe kutenderera kunokunda $10, kumwe kunorasikirwa $10. Wedzerai mhedzisiro yese mogovanisa nemiriyoni: munowana ingangoita −$0.27. Nhamba iyoyo ndiko kukosha kunotarisirwa kwebheti reRoulette. Hazvisi zvinoitika pakutenderera kupi nokupi; iavhareji yenguva refu pakutenderera kwega kwega.

Mhinduro pfupiEV = mukana wekukunda × mari yakundwa − mukana wekurasikirwa × mari yarasika. Pabheti rese rakajairwa reRoulette izvi zvinosvika pa−2.70% yemari yakabhejwa.

Fomula yeEV yebheti reRoulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = nhamba dzakafukidzwa · S = mari yakabhejwa

Isai mutemo wemubhadharo weRoulette, 36/n − 1, uye n inobva yadzimwa. Iyi ndiyo nyaya yese yechikamu chekasino mumutsara mumwe:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

Edzai: calculator yekukosha kunotarisirwa muRoulette

Sarudzai kuti bheti rinofukidza nhamba ngani. Mukana nemubhadharo zvinochinja; kukosha kunotarisirwa hakuchinji.

nhamba 1 yakafukidzwa · inobhadhara 35:1mari yakabhejwa $10

kurasikirwa 97.3%

p(kukunda)1/37 = 2.70%

kukunda kunobhadhara+$350

kurasikirwa kunodhura−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10

kukosha kunotarisirwa−$0.27 pakutenderera · −2.70%

Zvinoita sei nekufamba kwenguva

Mhedzisiro yeavhareji pakutenderera kwega kwega kwebheti re$10 patsvuku, kutenderera pakunowanda. Pakutanga, mhanza ndiyo inotonga; avhareji inoenderera inogadzikana yakananga ku−$0.27 sampuru painokura. Uku ndiko kuswedera kwenguva refu kunovimbwa nako nekasino.

Kutenderera kwotevera kumwe, avhareji inoenderera inorega kudzungaira yogadzikana pasi pezero zvishoma.

Kusanzwisisa kwakajairika

“EV iri pasi pezero zvinoreva kuti ndicharasikirwa sesheni yega yega.”

Kwete. Zvinoreva kuti avhareji yemasesheni mazhinji kurasikirwa. Masesheni ega ega anosiyana zvikuru, uye kunyanya pamabheti ane musiyano wakakura se straight up.

“Kasino inoda nguva refu kuti ikunde.”

Chikamu chekasino chinoshanda pakutenderera kwega kwega; zvinoitwa nenguva refu kuita kuti mhedzisiro ifanotaurike. Musesheni imwe chete, mhanza ndiyo simba guru.

“Mamwe mabheti ane EV iri nani pane mamwe.”

Kwete muRoulette yeEurope, kunze kwechinhu chimwe: pasi pe la partage kana en prison, mabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana ane hafu yechikamu chekasino chakajairwa.

Kuseka zvishoma

$Kwete zvinoitika pakutenderera kumwe. Avhareji yekutenderera kwese.$

Kwete zvinoitika pakutenderera kumwe. Avhareji yekutenderera kwese.