Muenzaniso: Masikati eD’Alembert
Yuniti imwe kumusoro mushure mekurasikirwa, yuniti imwe pasi mushure mekukunda, tsvuku pakutenderera kwega kwega kwekutenderera zana. Sisitimu yakapfava zvikuru, uye zvinodhura kupfava ikoko.
Sesheni yeD’Alembert yakafananidzirwa yekutenderera 100 pa$5 payuniti. Mari yakabhejwa yakadzokera ku$5 kashanu, yakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika $80 panguva yakaipa, uye yakapera pa$55 sesheni iri pasi ne$40. Sisitimu inonzwika sekuenzana asi isiri.
Fambai nesisitimu
Kurasikirwa kunokwidza nhanho imwe. Kukunda kunodzosera nhanho imwe shure.
Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.
Hurongwa
Tangai payunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe, $5, patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →. Mushure mekurasikirwa wedzerai yuniti; mushure mekukunda bvisai imwe, kwete pasi peimwe. Pfungwa, isina kurehwa nad’Alembert asi yaanopomerwa, ndeyekuti kukunda nekurasikirwa zvinoenzana, saka papeya imwe neimwe yekurasikirwa kumwe nekukunda kumwe tinenge tiri pamusoro neyuniti. Masvomhu anoti tsvuku inokunda 48.65% yekutenderera, saka kurasikirwa kunopfuura kukunda nechinenge chimwe pamakumi mana, uye mari yakabhejwa inokwira zvishoma nezvishoma nekufamba kwenguva.
Kutenderera 1–30
Tsvuku gumi nena, nhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese → gumi neshanu, zerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese → imwe. Mari yakabhejwa yakakwira kusvika $20 pamutsara wekurasikirwa kutatu, ikadzokera ku$5 pakutenderera 18, ikakwira kusvika $25 pakupera kwechikamu ichi. Pundutso +$20. Peya imwe neimwe yekurasikirwa nekukunda yakapa yuniti sezvakavimbiswa; kurasikirwa kwakawedzerwa kwakazvidya. Zvinonzwika sepombi inononoka inowanzoshanda.
Kutenderera 31–65
Nguva yakaipa. Tsvuku gumi nenhatu kana zvichienzaniswa nemakumi maviri nembiri dzisiri tsvuku, kusanganisira mutsara wekurasikirwa kunomwe. Kubva pa$5 pakutenderera 41 mari yakabhejwa yakakwira yuniti imwe panguva kusvika $80, uye kurasikirwa kwega kwega kwe$75 kwakadzima kukunda gumi neshanu kwe$5 kwakapfuura. Pundutso −$485 pachikamu ichi; zvese pamwe −$465. Hapana chakaitika chinotyisa pakutenderera kumwe; kukwira zvishoma nezvishoma ndiko kwakazviita.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- median −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Kutenderera 66–100
Tsvuku makumi maviri kana zvichienzaniswa negumi neshanu dzisiri tsvuku, mari yakabhejwa ichidzika kubva pa$80 ichienda ku$55 nenhanho dze$5. Kukunda kwega kwega pamari yakabhejwa yakakwira kwakadzosa mari chaiyo: kukunda kwe$75 mushure mekurasikirwa kwe$70 ipeya inopa +$5, asi peya yacho yakakura. Pundutso +$425 pachikamu ichi; pakupedzisira −$40.
Maakaundi
Avhareji yemari yakabhejwa ingangoita $37, saka mari yose yakabhejwa ingangoita $3,670 kana ichienzaniswa ne$500 yemubheji anobheja kwakaenzana pa$5. Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → pa$3,670 i$99; chaiko −$40, pasi pestandard deviationmasvomhuStandard deviationMudzi wesikweya wemusiyano; chinhambwe chakajairwa chemhedzisiro kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa.Verengai zvese → imwe. Kukwira kwehukuru hwemari yakabhejwa ndiwo mhedzisiro yese yesisitimu: mari yakawanda patafura, 2.70% imwe chete inobviswa padhora rimwe nerimwe, kugoverwa kwakafara kwemhedzisiro.
Zvinoratidzwa nesesheni
D’Alembert kukanganisa kwemubheji kwakanyorwa semutemo wekubheja: kunofungidzira kuti kukunda nekurasikirwa zvichaenzana nekukurumidza zvakakwana kuti mari yakabhejwa idzike zvakare. Zvinoenzana munguva refu nekudzikiswa, kwete nekugadziriswa, uye mari yakabhejwa haina chikonzero chekudzokera kuyuniti imwe. Sisitimu inononoka isina mawere, uye kunonoka ikoko ndiko kunoita kuti vatambi vaitende.
Mibvunzo
Kashoma. Mari yakabhejwa inokura neyuniti imwe pakurasikirwa kwega kwega, kwete kupetwa kaviri, saka zvinotora mutsara wakaipa wakareba zvikuru kusvika pamuganho.
Hongu, uye muganho unoishandura kuva kubheja kwakaenzananziraKubheja kwakaenzanaKubheja mari imwe chete pakutenderera kwega kwega. Chiyero chinoenzaniswa nacho progression yega yega.Verengai zvese → pamuganho mushure memutsara wakaipa. Muganho upi noupi wakanaka; hapana unochinja chikamu chekasino.
Akati muna 1754 muswe unowedzera mukana mushure memutsara wemisoro. Vabheji vakabvumirana naye vakatumidza sisitimu zita rake. Angadai akanyara.
Kuseka zvishoma
Sisitimu yakapfava zvikuru. Inokwira zvishoma nezvishoma panzvimbo pekuwira pamawere.
Zvinyorwa
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.