Nzira dzeKubheja paRoulette · Zvinoshanda · maminitsi 7

Muganho weKurasikirwa / Muganho weKukunda

Mutemo wekumira ndiwo chikamu chimwe chete che“sisitimu” chine mhedzisiro chaiyo, nekuti unochinja huwandu hwamunobheja.

Mhinduro pfupi

Kumira nekukurumidza kunoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa uye nekudaro kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa. Hakugadziri mukana pamusoro pekasino; muganho wekukunda hau“chengetedzi” chinhu chisingadai chakapihwa kana kutorwa nekutenderera kunotevera.

mhedzisiro paEV / $
hapana
mhedzisiro pamari yose yakabhejwa
huru
mhedzisiro pamusiyano
huru
anosarudza ndiani
imi, pamberi

Muganho wekurasikirwa

Sarudzai huwandu hwamunobvuma kurasikirwa nahwo mobva kana hwapera. Zvinoisa muganho pane zvakaipisisa, zvinopedza sesheni kudzingirira zvakarasika kusati kwatanga, uye zvinoita kuti mutengo unotarisirwa wemanheru uverengeke: hauzombopfuuri muganho wekurasikirwanziraMuganho wekurasikirwaHuwandu hwekurasikirwa hwakatarwa pamberi apo munopedza sesheni.Verengai zvese →, kazhinji unoderera. Pamitemo yose iri pawebhusaiti ino, ndiwo unonyanya kuchinja zvinoitika kumutambi, nekuti ndiwo chete unopedza sesheni nguva dzose.

Muganho wekukunda

Sarudzai chinangwa mobva kana machisvika. Zvinoita kuti masesheni ekukunda ave akawanda uye madiki. Pamasesheni mazhinji avhareji ichiri −2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwamariMari yose yakabhejwaMari yese yakabhejwa musesheni kana munguva yakati, kusanganisira mari yakakundwa yakabhejwazve. Mamwe mazita: handle, action.Verengai zvese →; mafambisa nguva iyo kurasikirwa kunouya nayo, hamuna kukubvisa. Chirevo chekuti “kuchengetedza purofiti” chinotsanangura manzwiro. Kutenderera kunotevera kwaigara kuchizova 18/37 kungave makutamba manheru ano kana svondo rinouya.

$10 patsvuku, bhajeti ye$500, kutenderera 100 pakupedzisirapasina kumiramuganho wekurasikirwa $100muganho wekukunda $100zvose zviri zviviri
masesheni anopera ari mberi≈ 42%≈ 42%≈ 53%≈ 50%
avhareji yemhedzisiro−$27−$22−$20−$16
5% yakaipisisa yemasesheni−$190−$100−$190−$100
5% yakanakisisa yemasesheni+$140+$140+$100+$100
avhareji yekutenderera kwakatambwa100≈ 85≈ 75≈ 60
Zvakaedzwa nesimulation. Kumira kunoderedza avhareji yekurasikirwa chete nekuderedza kutenderera. Kurasikirwa pakutenderera kwega kwega hakuchinji.

Nharo yekare

Kana kumira muri mberi kuchibatsira, kwave kuchikakavadzana kwenguva refu. Nyanzvi yepfungwa John Venn aiti mutambi anogona ega kusarudza nguva yekumira ane mukana pamusoro, kana chikwereti chisina muganho. Lord Rayleigh akapindura kuti kana hupfumi hwemativi ose huine muganho mukana iwoyo unonyangarika, uye zvidzidzo zvemazuva ano zvinobvumirana: hapana mutemo wekuti mumire rini unochinja avhareji yemhedzisiro payunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → yakabhejwa (Epstein, 2013). ChiFrench chine chirevo chekusiya tafura uri mberi, faire Charlemagne. Chinotumidza tsika, kwete mukana pamusoro pekasino.

John Venn aiti mutambi anosarudza nguva yekumira ane mukana pamusoro; Lord Rayleigh akapindura kuti kana hupfumi huine muganho mukana iwoyo unonyangarika.

Sei avhareji ichivandudzika

Kwete nekuti kumira kunowana nguva yakanaka yekubva. Asi nekuti sesheni inopera mushure mekutenderera 60 yakabheja mari 60 pachinzvimbo che100 uye yakabhadhara 2.70% pamadhora mashoma. Mutemo upi neupi unoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa unoderedza kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → muchiyero chakaenzana chaizvo: muganho wekurasikirwa, muganho wekukundanziraMuganho wekukundaChinangwa chepurofiti chakatarwa pamberi apo munopedza sesheni.Verengai zvese →, muganho wenguva, huwandu hwekutenderera kana kungoderedza mari yekubheja.

Kusarudza nhamba

Muganho wekurasikirwa we20–40% yebhajeti yesesheni unoita kuti husiku hwakaipa hutsungirirwe pasina kumanikidza zvekuti musiyanomasvomhuMusiyanoChiyero chekuti mhedzisiro yakapararira zvakadii kutenderedza kukosha kunotarisirwa. Wakakwirira pastraight up, wakaderera pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana.Verengai zvese → wakajairika uusvike husiku hwakawanda. Muganho wekukunda we20–50% yebhajeti unosvikika musesheni yakajairika (mubhadharo wakaenzana unosvika +$100 kubva pa$500 pane imwe nguva muhafu yemasesheni ekutenderera 100) pasina kuva chinhu chiri nyore. Nhamba ndedzenyu; kuzvidzora kwekudzinyora pasi hakusi kwenyu chete.

Masesheni gumi e$10; muganho wekurasikirwa we$100 waizopedza aya aidonha nekukurumidzamhedzisiro vs kutanga
+$420$0−$500+$140−$2500125250375500kutendereramhedzisiro
masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, bhuruu yakajeka median, masampuru 83 akachenuruka · fambisai pamusoro pechati kuti muone maquantile pakutenderera
  • p10 −$460
  • p25 −$300
  • median −$140
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$140
masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · y-axis yakachekwa kusvika papercentile ye1–99 (magumo −$500 kusvika +$640) · kutenderera 500 · $10 kutanga · mubhadharo wakaenzana

Mutemo pamusoro pemitemo

Mutemo wekumira unoshanda chete kana wasarudzwa sesheni isati yatanga uye usingachinjwi mukati mayo. “Kungotenderera kumwe chete kuti ndidzokere pakaenzana” ndiko kuti muganho wekurasikirwa uri kutaurirwazve nemunhu wawakagadzirirwa kuchengetedza. Kana mukaona izvozvo zvichiitika, derederai mari yekubheja pane kukwidza muganho.

Mibvunzo

Muganho wekukunda unokunda kasino here?

Kwete. Unoita kuti kukunda kudiki kuwande uye unosiya avhareji yenguva refu iri −2.70% yezvamakabheja.

Muganho wenguva wakanaka semuganho wekurasikirwa here?

Unoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa nenzira imwe chete uye uri nyore kuchengeta. Shandisai zvose zviri zviviri.

Ko kana ndikasvika pamuganho wekukunda nekukurumidza?

Ibvai. Ndiwo mutemo. Kutenderera kwamusina kutamba hakuna kumbobhadharisa chinhu.

Kuseka zvishoma

Kumira kunoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa. Ndizvo chete zvakunoita, uye zvakakwana.

Kumira kunoderedza mari yose yakabhejwa. Ndizvo chete zvakunoita, uye zvakakwana.

Zvinyorwa

  1. RouletteDoc. Pfupiso yenzira dzeRoulette. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
  2. Roulette77. Pfupiso yenzira dzeRoulette. https://roulette77.us/strategies
  3. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Chitsauko 13, roulette.
  4. Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
Nzira dzeKubheja paRouletteKutonga Mari yeKutamba paRouletteMasvomhu eRouletteNjodzi yeKupera MariZvishandiso zveRouletteSimulator yeSesheni yeRouletteMienzaniso Nhanho neNhanhoMuenzaniso: Manheru e$100 paTsvukuZvimweMakwikwi eRoulette
yakaongororwa 2026-09-28modhi: yeEurope, zero imwemaitiro ↗zvinyorwa ↗