Nzira yeParoli paRoulette (Reverse Martingale)
Nzira yeParoli paRoulette inopeta kaviri mushure mekukunda uye inodzokera pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu kwakateverana.
Haikundi vhiri; inongochinja kuti kurasikirwa kunouya sei. Paroli inoisa panjodzi bheti rimwe rekutanga remari yenyu pasaikiri imwe neimwe uye inoshandisa zvakakundwa pane zvimwe zvose. Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → hakuchinji.
Fambai nesisitimu
Kukunda kunofambisa nhanho imwe mberi. Kurasikirwa, kana kukunda kwechitatu, kunodzokera kwekutanga.
Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.
Sisitimu yeParoli paRoulette inoshanda sei?
Bhejai yunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe. Mukakunda, siyai zvose patafura: bheti rinotevera nderemaviri. Mukakundazve, nderemana. Mukakunda kechitatu, torai mayuniti manomwe epurofiti modzokera kune imwe. Mukarasikirwa panguva ipi neipi munodzokerawo kune imwe. Iyoyo ndiyo sisitimu yose. Mushure mekukunda kwekutanga muri kubheja zvamakakunda, saka zvakanyanya zvinorasikirwa nemari yekutambamariMari yekutambaMari yose yakachengeterwa kutamba. Kutonga mari yekutamba kuri kusarudza kuti mungaisa pangozi yakawanda sei pabheti rimwe nepasesheni imwe.Verengai zvese → yenyu pasaikiri ipi neipi iyuniti imwe. Kukunda katatu kwakateverana pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana kunoitika nemukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → (18/37)³ = 11.5%, anenge saikiri imwe pamapfumbamwe.
Sesheni inoita sei?
Kuyerera zvishoma nezvishoma nekusvetuka kwepano neapo. Fungai nezvekutenga tikiti diki rimwe chete kakawanda: rimwe nerimwe rinodhura yuniti imwe, mazhinji haana chaanobhadhara, uye anenge rimwe pamapfumbamwe rinobhadhara manomwe. Mukana wekupedza sesheni yekutenderera 100 nepurofiti wakaderera (anenge 30%) nekuti masesheni mazhinji haana masaikiri akapera akakwana kuti avhare kurasikirwa kwega kwega kweyuniti imwe; kana sesheni ikapera iri mberi, kazhinji inopera iri mberi zvakanyanya.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- median −$300
- p75 +$30
- p90 +$320
Sisitimu yeParoli inoshanda here?
Kwete. Inochinja chimiro chekurasikirwa, kwete ukuru hwako. Ngatitii p = 18/37. Kukunda 7 nemukana p³ = 0.115; kurasikirwa 1 nemukana 1 − p³ = 0.885. Mhedzisiro inotarisirwa pasaikiri: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 mayuniti. Mayuniti anotarisirwa kubhejwa pasaikiri: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92. Govai: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%. Sisitimu yega yega inopa nhamba iyi kana maita kugova uku.
Pfungwa inokwezva ndeyekuti machipimariChipiChiratidzo chinomiririra mari yakatarwa, chinoiswa patafura yekubhejera kuita bheti. Rimwe zita: check.Verengai zvese → akasiyiwa patafura imari yekasino, saka kuabheja hakudhuri chinhu. Ndeenyu kubva panguva yaanobhadharwa, uye rimwe nerimwe rinodzoserwa patafura rine 2.70% imwe chete iyoyo.
Ko kana mukamirira kukunda kana kwakateverana?
ParolinziraParoliProgression inokwira mushure mekukunda: petai kaviri mushure mekukunda, dzokerai pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu zvichitevedzana. Rimwe zita: reverse Martingale.Verengai zvese → kusvika pakukunda kana inoshandura yuniti imwe kuva 16, purofiti ye15, nemukana (18/37)⁴ = 5.6%. Taylor (2021) anobvunza mubvunzo wakapinza: nemari yekutamba yemayuniti mashoma, mukana wekuwana mutsara mumwe wakadaro mari yekutamba isati yapera wakadii? Saikiri yega yega yakundikana inodhura yuniti imwe chaiyo, saka nemayuniti 15 mhinduro i1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58%, zviri nani pane 48.6% yekuisa ese 15 patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → kamwe chete. Dambudziko rinoratidzwa nedzimwe nhamba. Mutsara wekukunda kazhinji unouya mushure memasaikiri akati wandei akundikana, saka purofiti painouya ine avhareji yemayuniti 9, kwete 15, uye nekuti progressionnziraProgressionMutemo upi zvawo unochinja mari yekubheja zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura. Maprogression anokwira mushure mekurasikirwa anoikwidza kana mukarasikirwa; maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda anoikwidza kana mukakunda.Verengai zvese → inobheja mari yakawanda pamwe chete, mhedzisiro yayo yeavhareji yakaipa kupfuura yebheti rimwe chete.
Zvinokosha here kuti munomira papi?
Kuchimiro chete. Paroli kusvika pakukunda kaviri (torai 3) kana kana (torai 15) inochinja kuwanda kwekurova nemubairo, kwete chikamu chekasino. “Parlay” pabheti re straight up (kusiya kukunda kwe35 kusvika ku1 patafura) ipfungwa imwe chete ine p = 1/37 nemubhadharo we1,295 kusvika ku1mariMubhadharoZvinodzoserwa nebheti rakunda, zvinotaurwa se“X kusvika ku1” pamusoro pemari yakabhejwa inodzoserwa.Verengai zvese → pakurova kwakateverana kaviri, ndosaka iri nyaya zvikuru kwete chinhu chinoitwa.
Ndiani anoisarudza, uye nei?
Vatambi vanoda kurasikirwa kwakanyanya kudiki uye kwakatarwa pasaikiri uye vanobvuma kurasikirwa zvishoma nezvishoma kuti vawane mukana wekukunda kukuru. Ichiratidziro chepfungwa cheMartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese →: Martingale inokuitai kuti munzwe semukundi kusvikira husiku hwamusiri; Paroli inokuitai kuti munzwe semunhu anorasikirwa kusvikira husiku hwamusiri. Kasino inotora 2.70% yemari yose yakabhejwamariMari yose yakabhejwaMari yese yakabhejwa musesheni kana munguva yakati, kusanganisira mari yakakundwa yakabhejwazve. Mamwe mazita: handle, action.Verengai zvese → zvisinei.
Simulator · Paroli
Masesheni 2,000 emabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana kubva pamari yekutamba ye$1,000.
Bheti rekutanga $10 · muganho wetafura $500 · kutenderera 100 pasesheni
Mibvunzo
Yakachengeteka pakuti haigoni kuunza kurasikirwa kumwe chete kunoparadza. Haina kudhura zvishoma: kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa payuniti yakabhejwa kwakafanana chaizvo.
Panzvimbo ipi neipi yekumira svomhu yakafanana. Katatu ndiko kwakajairwa nekuti mubairo (mayuniti 7) unonzwika sewakakodzera kumirira uye kuwanda kwekurova (11.5%) hakusi kwekushaya tariro.
Kuseka zvishoma
Kusiya zvamakakunda patafura kuchiri kubheja.
Zvinyorwa
- RouletteDoc. Pfupiso yenzira dzeRoulette.
- Roulette77. Tsananguro yenzira nemienzaniso.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.