Musiyano
Sei straight up nebheti petsvuku zvine kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → kwakafanana zvichinzwika semitambo yakasiyana.
Musiyano unoyera kuti mhedzisiro inopararira zvakadii kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa. Payuniti yakabhejwa unenge 34 pa straight up uye unenge 1 patsvuku.
Fomula yebheti rimwe
Pabheti rinobhadhara W kusvika ku1 nemukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → p, mhedzisiro payunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → i+W nemukana p uye −1 nemukana 1 − p. Kukosha kunotarisirwamasvomhuKukosha kunotarisirwaMhedzisiro yepakati pabheti rimwe nekufamba kwenguva refu. −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa pabheti rimwe nerimwe reEurope rakajairwa.Verengai zvese → i pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. MusiyanomasvomhuMusiyanoChiyero chekuti mhedzisiro yakapararira zvakadii kutenderedza kukosha kunotarisirwa. Wakakwirira pastraight up, wakaderera pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana.Verengai zvese → i E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Pastraight upbhetiStraight upNhamba imwe chete, rinobhadhara 35:1.Verengai zvese →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 34.08. PatsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 0.999.
Zvazvinoreva pasesheni
Misiyano inosanganiswa pakutenderera kwakazvimiriramasvomhuKutenderera kwakazvimiriraKutenderera kwega kwega kune mikana imwe chete zvisinei nezvakaitika kare. Ihwo hwaro hwekuverenga kwese pawebhusaiti ino.Verengai zvese →, saka pakutenderera N nemari yakabhejwa isingachinji musiyano wehuwandu hwose i N × mari² × σ², uye standard deviationmasvomhuStandard deviationMudzi wesikweya wemusiyano; chinhambwe chakajairwa chemhedzisiro kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa.Verengai zvese → i σ × mari × √N. Kutenderera 100 pa$10: standard deviation inenge $584 pamastraight up uye $100 patsvuku, yakakomberedza −$27 imwe chete inotarisirwa. Mumwe mutambi anoona mhedzisiro ichizungunuka nemazana; mumwe anoona kuyerera kwakapfava. Vese vari kubhadhara mutengo mumwe chete.
Musiyano nemasisitimu
ProgressionnziraProgressionMutemo upi zvawo unochinja mari yekubheja zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura. Maprogression anokwira mushure mekurasikirwa anoikwidza kana mukarasikirwa; maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda anoikwidza kana mukakunda.Verengai zvese → haichinje EV payuniti yakabhejwa asi inochinja zvese mari yakabhejwa nechimiro chekugoverwa kwemhedzisiro. MartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese → inoderedza musiyano wemasesheni mazhinji (kukunda kudiki kwakawanda) uye inowedzera muswe mukobvu (kurasikirwa kukuru kusingawanzoitika); musiyano wose pamasesheni ese wakakwira kupfuura wekubheja kwakaenzananziraKubheja kwakaenzanaKubheja mari imwe chete pakutenderera kwega kwega. Chiyero chinoenzaniswa nacho progression yega yega.Verengai zvese → nekuda kwemuswe iwoyo. ParolinziraParoliProgression inokwira mushure mekukunda: petai kaviri mushure mekukunda, dzokerai pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu zvichitevedzana. Rimwe zita: reverse Martingale.Verengai zvese → inoita zvinopesana. Kusarudza sisitimu kusarudza chimiro chemusiyano; avhareji haisi pane zvinosarudzwa.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- median −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1,120
Nzira yeKubheja Kwakaenzana paRouletteNzira yeParoli paRoulette (Reverse Martingale)
Sei zvichikosha kumutambi
Musiyano ndiwo unoita kuti masesheni mapfupi asafanotaurika uye marefu afanotaurike. Ne σ = $100 ne EV = −$27 pakutenderera 100, chikamu chekasino chikota cheruzha, uye sesheni inopera muri mberi chinhu chakajairika. Pakutenderera 10,000 EV iri −$2,700 uye σ iri $1,000; chikamu chekasino chava chinenge katatu kuruzha, uye kuramba muri mberi chiitiko chethree-sigma. Musiyano ishamwari yemutambi munguva pfupi uye yekasino munguva refu.
Musiyano wemabheti akasanganiswa
Pamabheti akati wandei pakutenderera kumwe chete, mhedzisiro dzakabatana (kubuda kwe17 kunovawo kubuda kwenhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese → uye yedozenibhetiDozeni1–12, 13–24 kana 25–36, rinobhadhara 2:1.Verengai zvese → yechipiri), saka misiyano haingosanganiswi zvakadaro. Chishandiso cheMuvaki weBheti chinoverenga kugoverwa chaiko kwechero seti yemachipimariChipiChiratidzo chinomiririra mari yakatarwa, chinoiswa patafura yekubhejera kuita bheti. Rimwe zita: check.Verengai zvese → nekunyora mhedzisiro yose 37, inova ndiyo nzira chete yakarurama yekuzviita.
Fomula
Mibvunzo
Kwete. Bheti rega rega rine kukosha kunotarisirwa kwakafanana. Musiyano wakakwira unoreva kuzungunuka kwakakura kwakakomberedza kukosha ikoko.
Mabheti emubhadharo wakaenzanabhetiBheti remubhadharo wakaenzanaTsvuku/nhema, isina kuenzana/yakaenzana, dzepamusoro/dzepasi. Nhamba 18, rinobhadhara 1:1.Verengai zvese →, ane σ ≈ 1 payuniti. Unodzikira zvakare nela partagemutemoLa partageMutemo wechiFrench: kana zero yabuda, hafu yemari yakabhejwa pabheti remubhadharo wakaenzana inodzoserwa. Inoita hafu chikamu chekasino pamabheti iwayo kusvika pa1.35%.Verengai zvese →, iyo inovandudzawo avhareji.
Purofiti inotarisirwa yakafanana padhora rega rega; musiyano unongokanganisa kuti mari inopinda mukasino inouya nemapundu zvakadii, uye kasino ine zviuru zvevatambi zvinoitsetsa.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Vatambi vaviri vanobheja $1 pakutenderera kwekutenderera 100 pavhiri reEurope, mumwe nguva dzose patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →, mumwe nguva dzose pa17. Ndiani ane mukana mukuru wekuva mberi pakupedzisira?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Mutambi wepa17: 50.9%, kana zvichienzaniswa ne35.5% pakutsvuku. Vese vanorasikirwa $2.70 paavhareji.
Tsvuku: mutambi ari mberi nekukunda 51 kana kupfuura pa100, kumwe nekumwe nemukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → we18/37. Binomial distribution inopa 35.5%, uye kukunda 50 chaiko, kuenzana, imwe 7.7%.
Nhamba 17: kukunda kwega kwega kunodzosa $36, saka kukunda kuviri (−$28) hakuna kukwana uye kutatu (+$8) kwakakwana. Mukana wekubuda katatu kana kupfuura pakutenderera 100 pa1/37 i50.9%.
Mutambi we-straight up anowanzova mberi, asi mhedzisiro yakasiyana-siyana zvikuru: kubuda kumwe kuwedzera kana kudiki kunofambisa mhedzisiro ne$36, uye vatambi vari shure kazhinji vari shure zvikuru. Bollman (2024) anopa nhamba dzeAmerica, 26.5% ne49.2%.
Kuseka zvishoma
Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwa kwakafanana. Rimwe racho rinokuudzai nezvazvo richidanidzira.
Zvinyorwa
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.