Mukana muRoulette
Mukana wega wega muRoulette ihuwandu hwemakomba hwakakamurwa ne37.
p = nhamba dzakafukidzwa / 37. Nhamba imwe: 2.70%. Gumi nesere: 48.65%. Mukana wekutevedzana kwakati kunowanikwa nekuwanza mikana yekutenderera kumwe nekumwe.
Kutenderera kumwe
Rimwe nerimwe pamakombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → 37 rine mukana wakaenzana, saka mikana yekukunda muRoulette pakutenderera kumwe inongova nyaya yekuverenga. Bheti panhamba ina rinokunda 4/37 yenguva, zvinenge 10.8%. Hapana zvimwe zvinopfuura izvi pamukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wekutenderera kumwe, ndosaka mutambo wose uchigona kuongororwa pajira repatafura.
Kutenderera kwakawanda
Kutenderera kwakazvimirira, saka mikana yekutevedzana inowanzwa. TsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → mbiri dzakatevedzana: (18/37)² = 23.7%. Tsvuku yobva zerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1.3%. Gumi nenomwe kaviri kakatevedzana: (1/37)² = 0.073%, zvinenge kamwe pa1,369. Kurongeka kunokosha pakutevedzana kwakati asi kwete pakuverenga: “tsvuku yobva nhemabhetiNhemaBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 nhema. ChiFrench: noir.Verengai zvese →” i25.0% asi “tsvuku imwe nenhema imwe mukutenderera kuviri, chero kurongeka” i50.0%.
Kamwe chete zvishoma
Shandisai complement. Mukana wekusabuda kwestraight upbhetiStraight upNhamba imwe chete, rinobhadhara 35:1.Verengai zvese → mukutenderera 37 i(36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%, saka mukana wekubuda kamwe chete zvishoma i63.7%, kwete “chokwadi chisina kupokana” chinotarisirwa nevatambi vazhinji pamikana 37 ye1 pa37. Kuverenga kumwe chete uku kunoratidza kuti nhamba ine mukana unenge 1 pa3 wekusatombobuda mukutenderera 37, ndosaka bhodhi remhedzisiro richigara richiratidza nhamba shoma “dzinotonhora”.
Nguva yekumirira inotarisirwa
Paavhareji nhamba ye straight up inobuda kamwe pakutenderera 37, asi kumirira kunosiyana zvikuru: kumirira kwepakati (median) kunenge kutenderera 25 (hafu yenguva inobuda nokukurumidza) uye kumirira kumwe pamakumi maviri kunopfuura kutenderera 110. Nguva dzekumirira dzegeometric process dzine muswe murefu, uye mutambi “anoziva” kuti nhamba yava kunonoka mushure mekutenderera 60 ari kutsanangura chinhu chinoitika kamwe pashanu.
Zvikanganiso zvinowanzoitika
Kusanganisa mikana yezviitiko zvinogona kuitika zvese pamwe (tsvuku kana isina kuenzana hakusi 36/37; i26/37, nokuti nhamba gumi dzine zvese zviri zviviri). Kuwanza zviitiko zvekutenderera kumwe chete (tsvuku uye isina kuenzana pakutenderera kumwe i10/37, kwete 18/37 × 18/37). Kutora kutenderera kwakapfuura sechikamu chekutevedzana kwamuri kubhejera ikozvino: mushure metsvuku gumi, mukana weyegumi neimwe i18/37, kwete (18/37)¹¹.
Odds muRoulette ndezvipi, uye dzinosiyana sei nemukana?
Makasino anotaura mibhadharomariMubhadharoZvinodzoserwa nebheti rakunda, zvinotaurwa se“X kusvika ku1” pamusoro pemari yakabhejwa inodzoserwa.Verengai zvese → seodds. Nhamba imwe inokunda nemukana we1/37, saka odds dzekukunda muRoulette panhamba imwe i36 kusvika ku1 dzinopikisa. Mubhadharo we35 kusvika ku1 unoshaya yunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe, uye ndicho chikamu chekasinomasvomhuChikamu chekasinoChikamu chemari yega yega yakabhejwa chinochengetwa nekasino paavhareji: 2.70% muRoulette yeEurope.Verengai zvese → muchimiro chacho chepakutanga. Kushandura: odds dzinopikisa = (1 − p)/p; mukana = 1/(odds + 1).
Fomula
Mibvunzo
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0.073%.
36/37 = 97.3%. Zero ndiyo inosara.
Dzose 37 dziri pa1/37. Gumi nenomwe ndiyo nhamba inonyanya kubhejwa, uye ichi chokwadi pamusoro pevanhu.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Munobheja patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →, kutenderera nekutenderera. Mukana wakadii wekuti kukunda kwenyu kwechishanu kuuye pakutenderera kwechisere chaiko? Uye wekuti muve nekukunda kushanu mukati mekutenderera kusere kwekutanga?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro 12.9%, anenge 1 pa8, pakukunda kwechishanu pakutenderera kwechisere. 33.4% pakukunda kushanu panguva iyoyo.
Kukunda kwechishanu pakutenderera kwechisere kunoreva zvinhu zviviri: kutenderera kwechisere kunokunda, uye kutenderera kunomwe kwekutanga kune kukunda kuna chaiko nekurasikirwa kutatu, nekurongwa kupi zvako. Kune nzira 35 dzekuisa kukunda kuna mukutenderera kunomwe.
Saka mukana i35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0.02725 × 0.1354 = 12.9%.
Pakukunda kushanu pakasvika kutenderera kwechisere, wedzerai chikamu chakafanana pakukunda kwechishanu pakutenderera kwechishanu, kwechitanhatu nekwechinomwe: 2.7% + 7.0% + 10.8% + 12.9% = 33.4%. Nyanzvi dzezviverengero dzinoti negative binomial distribution: kuti kuedza kungani kunotorwa nehuwandu hwakatarwa hwekubudirira. Taylor (2021) anoshanda mubvunzo mumwe chete uyu pavhiri reAmerica, 12.2%.
Kuseka zvishoma
Verengai makomba. Kamurai ne37. Wanzai pakutevedzana. Zvapera.
Zvinyorwa
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.