Makombiyuta eRoulette
Kuyera nguva kunoita kombiyuta bhora, vakavaka dzekutanga, uye kuti inofanira kunyatsoita sei.
Kombiyuta yeRoulette inoyera nguva yebhora nerotor mumasekondi ekutanga ekutenderera uye inodudza chikamu chevhiri chinofanira kuwira bhora. Edward Thorp naClaude Shannon vakavaka yekutanga muna 1961, uye maEudaemons akavaka dzedhijitari kubva muna 1976. Nzira iyi inoda mabheti anogamuchirwa mushure mekukanda: mastudio emhenyu nhasi anovhara kubheja panguva yekukanda, uye Nevada yakarambidza midziyo yakadaro kubva muna 1985.
Mavakirwo akaitwa sisitimu yekombiyuta yeRoulette yekutanga
Pfungwa iyi yakauya kuna Edward Thorp muchirimo cha1955, paaive mudzidzi wefizikisi wepamusoro paUCLA: vhiri rakagadzirwa zvakanaka zvekuti harigoni kutsauka rinofanira kutenderedza bhoramidziyoBhoraBhora diki rinokandwa mumugero richienda rimwe divi nerotor. Mabhora emazuva ano ndeeivorine kana Teflon, 18–21 mm.Verengai zvese → zvinofembeka senyika inotenderera zuva. Akatora vhidhiyo yevhiri rakachipa rehafu yesaizi newachi yekuyera nguva mufuremu uye akaona kuti raive risina hurongwa zvekuti harigoni kufembwa, uye rwendo rwekuNevada muna Zvita 1958 rwakamuratidza kuti mavhiri emakasino aitenderera zvakatsetseka. Blackjack yakabva yatora nguva yake. MunaMbudzi 1960, kuMIT, akakumbira Claude Shannon kuti atumire pepa rake rekuverenga makadhi kuNational Academy of Sciences; pakupera kwemusangano Shannon akabvunza kuti chii chimwe chaaishanda nacho, uye purojekiti yeRoulette yakatamira mubasement yaShannon. Vakatenga vhiri rakajairwa kubva kuReno ne$1,500, vakariisa patafura yekare yebhiriyadhi yeslate, uye vakayera nguva yebhora nechiedza chestrobe newachi yaiverengwa kusvika pazana rechikamu chesekondi. Nekudzidzira, zvikanganiso zvavo zvekuyera nguva zvakadzikira kubva pa0.03 kusvika pa0.01 sekondi. NaChikumi 1961 kombiyuta yaive netransistor gumi nembiri uye yaive saizi yepaketi yemidzanga: switch iri mushangu, yaishandiswa nechigunwe chikuru chetsoka, yaiyera nguva yerotormidziyoRotorChikamu chevhiri chinotenderera chakatakura makomba.Verengai zvese → nebhora, uye inzwi munzeve imwe raidudza chimwe chezvikamu zvevhirivhiriChikamu chevhiriRutivi rwemakomba akatevedzana pavhiri, rwakasiyana neboka riri patafura yekubhejera.Verengai zvese → zvisere. MuLas Vegas zhizha iroro Shannon aiyera nguva pavhiri achinyora nhamba semutambi wesisitimu chero upi, apo Thorp aibheja madime kumucheto wetafura. Kufembera kwakaramba kwakamira, asi waya dzakatetepa sevhudzi dzekuenda kunzeve dzaigara dzichidambuka, uye kamwe mukadzi aive padivi paThorp akatarisa nekutya speaker yaibuda munzeve make. Havana kumbobheja zvakakomba. Thorp akazivisa sisitimu yekombiyuta yeRoulette muna 1966 uye akaburitsa ruzivo rwakazara muna 1979 na1984.
Makombiyuta edhijitari ekutanga
Muchina waThorp naShannon waive analog: dunhu rayo ndiro raive purogiramu yayo, uye kuchinja nzira kwaireva kuisazve waya patsva. Microprocessor yakabvisa muganho iwoyo. Alan Lewis, mudzidzi paCaltech, akatora kombiyuta yedhijitari yaakazvigadzirira mubhegi rekamera kuenda kuCircus Circus muLas Vegas muna 1972, akayera nguva yemavhiri ari pabharikoni pamusoro pematafura uye akatumira kufembera neredhiyo kumumwe wake aive pasi. Yakashanda, asi haina kuwana mari; akazodzidza gare gare kuti akanga asiya kurereka kwevhiri. Kubva muna 1976 boka revadzidzi vefizikisi kuSanta Cruz, maEudaemons, vakaita basa iri zvakazara. Vakatenga vhiri rekasino, vakayera bhora, rotor, kurereka nekusvetuka, uye vakanyora maequation ane zvigadziriso zvishanu izvo mutambi aigadzirisa pavhiri rimwe nerimwe nekudzvanya maswitch ezvigunwe zvetsoka kwemaminitsi anosvika makumi maviri asati abheja. Kombiyuta yavo yaidudza chimwe chezvikamu zvisere masekondi mashoma mukutenderera. Patafura chaiyo muna Ndira 1978 yakapa mukana wavakati 25%; midziyo, yakasungirirwa pamuviri uye yakazovakirwa mushangu, yakakundikana kakawanda kupfuura fizikisi (onai The Eudaemons).
Sei mabheti emunguva yapera aive nebasa
Kasino inogona kumisa kufembera zvachose nekuramba mabheti kana bhora rakandwa. Thorp akawana kuti dzinenge hapana dzaizviita: kuReno, Las Vegas, London, Monte Carlo, Nice, Venice nePuerto Rico tsika yakajairika yaive yekudaidza “hapachina mabhetimaitiroHapachina mabhetiKudaidzira kwemutambisi (kana chiziviso chiri pasikirini) kunovhara kubheja. Machipi haachagoni kuiswa, kufambiswa kana kubviswa.Verengai zvese →” kutenderera kumwe kana kuviri bhora risati radonha. Hwindo iroro ndiro rakadiwa nehurongwa hwese hwekufembera kubvira ipapo, kubva kumaEudaemons kusvika kumabheti emunguva yapera echikwata cheRitz paracetracktafuraRacetrackMutsetse wakaita oval patafura dzekubhejera dzemhenyu nedzemagetsi unoratidza nhamba nenhevedzo yevhiri, unoshandiswa kuisa mabheti evavakidzani nezvikamu nekubaya kamwe.Verengai zvese →. Nevada yakaita kuti midziyo yekufembera isave pamutemo muna Chivabvu 1985, uye mastudio emhenyu nhasi anovhara kubheja panguva yekukanda.
Marwiro akaita makasino
Mumakore apo mabheti aichigamuchirwa mushure mekukanda, makasino airwisa vatambi vaifungidzirwa kuburikidza nemutambisi. Nyaya dzevatambi vesisitimu yaNorman Leigh kuNice muna 1966 nedzezvikwata zvekufembera zvakazotevera dzinotsanangura croupiervanhuCroupierMutambisi patafura yeRoulette.Verengai zvese → mutsva pakutenderera kwega kwega, bhora rakachinjwa, kutenderera kupfupi kana kunokurumidza, tafura yakazara nevanhu vekasino pachayo, uye pakupedzisira tafura yakavharwa. Nyaya idzi dzinobva kudivi revatambi uye dzakaoma kuongorora (Goldman, 2007). Zvisinei, maitiro aya ane musoro: kutenderera kupfupi kana kunokurumidza hakugoni kunanga bhora kugombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese →, asi kunokanganisa nguva inoyerwa nemufemberi.
Kunaka kunofanira kuita kufembera
Thorp (1984) akaverenga kukosha kwekufembera kana kukanganisa kwako kuchitevera bell curve: pakutenderera kwakajairika gomba rakafembwa rinorasika nemakomba σ kune rimwe divi kana rimwe. Bhejai nhamba yakafembwa yoga, kana iyo pamwe nevavakidzanibhetiVavakidzaniNhamba nemakomba maviri kurutivi rumwe nerumwe rwayo pavhiri, machipi mashanu e straight-up.Verengai zvese → vaviri kudivi rimwe nerimwe, uye mukana unoenderana chete nekukura kwe σ. Kufembera kwakakwana kwaizokunda straight upbhetiStraight upNhamba imwe chete, rinobhadhara 35:1.Verengai zvese → yega yega. Pa σ = makomba 10, kunyatsoita kwakasvikwa naThorp naShannon, straight up inodzosa inenge +44%, nhamba inopiwa naThorp yemudziyo wavo; nyaya yake ya1998 inoiisa pachikamu chechisere chevhiri chinonyanya kufarirwa. Mukana unodonha nekukurumidza apo kukanganisa kunokura uye unopera pamakomba anosvika 17 pavhiri reEurope ne16 pavhiri reAmerica, apo kufembera kunorasika nekunenge hafu yevhiri. Bhajeti yaThorp yezvikanganiso inoratidza kuti sei muganho iwoyo uri pedyo: zvikanganiso zvakasiyana zve1.4 ne5.5 makomba kubva pakuyera nguva yerotor nebhora, 7 kubva pakudonha kwebhora pamusoro pemadeflectormidziyoDeflectorChimwe chezvipingamupinyi zvesimbi paapron zvinoparadzira bhora riri kuwira. Mamwe mazita: canoe, diamond, pin.Verengai zvese → uye 6 kubva pakusvetuka mumakomba zvinobatana kusvika pakunenge 10.8.
Mibvunzo
Kwete. Hapana bhora. Nhamba inosarudzwa nesoftware animation isati yatanga.
Aizova panjodzi yekuyerwa nguva, ndosaka pasina anoitwa nenzira iyoyo.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Kudaidza vavakidzanibhetiVavakidzaniNhamba nemakomba maviri kurutivi rumwe nerumwe rwayo pavhiri, machipi mashanu e straight-up.Verengai zvese → kunoisa chipimariChipiChiratidzo chinomiririra mari yakatarwa, chinoiswa patafura yekubhejera kuita bheti. Rimwe zita: check.Verengai zvese → chimwe panhamba nepamakombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → maviri kumativi ose ayo pavhiri: machipi mashanu. Kufanotaura kunofanira kuwira mumakomba mashanu iwayo kangani kuti kuenzane, uye kunowana marii kana kuri kwechokwadi kamwe chete pashanu?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Kunoenzana pa5 pa36, 13.9%, kana zvichienzaniswa ne13.5% nemukana woga. Kuchinge kwakarurama kamwe chete pashanu, kunodzosa 44% kupfuura zvakabhejwa.
Kana kudaidza kukabuda, chipi chimwe chinokunda 35 kusvika ku1 uye chinodzoka nezvachakunda, machipi 36, uye mamwe mana anorasikirwa. Saka kubuda kunodzosa 36 pa5 yakabhejwa, uye kudaidza kunoenzana kana kukabuda ka5 pa36, 13.9%. Nemukana woga kunobuda ka5 pa37, 13.5%. Musiyano mudiki iwoyo, usingasviki hafu yepoinzi yezana, ndipo panobva 2.70% yose.
Pakubuda kamwe chete pashanu, 0.2 × 36 = machipi 7.2 anodzoka pa5 yega yega yakabhejwa, +44%. Pakamwe chete pana, +80%.
Ndosaka kuwedzera kudiki pakururama kuchikosha zvakanyanya, uye nei makasino achivhara mabheti anodaidzwatafuraBheti rinodaidzwaBheti rinoziviswa kumutambisi panzvimbo pekuiswa neruoko, kazhinji bheti rechikamu chevhiri rakadai sevoisins kana tiers. Rimwe zita: “bheti rinoziviswa”.Verengai zvese → nekukurumidza pamari huru: musiyano mudiki iwoyo ndiyo purofiti yose yekasino. Vatambi veRitz va2004 vanonzi vakabheja nenzira iyi.
Thorp akanyora zvikanganiso zvina zvakazvimirira mukufanotaura kwake, mumakomba: 1.4 kubva pakuyera nguva yerotormidziyoRotorChikamu chevhiri chinotenderera chakatakura makomba.Verengai zvese →, 5.5 kubva pakuyera nguva yebhoramidziyoBhoraBhora diki rinokandwa mumugero richienda rimwe divi nerotor. Mabhora emazuva ano ndeeivorine kana Teflon, 18–21 mm.Verengai zvese →, 7 kubva pakuwira kwebhora richiyambuka madeflectormidziyoDeflectorChimwe chezvipingamupinyi zvesimbi paapron zvinoparadzira bhora riri kuwira. Mamwe mazita: canoe, diamond, pin.Verengai zvese → ne6 kubva pakusvetuka mumakomba. Huwandu hwose hwakakura sei, uye zvikanganiso zviviri zvekuyera nguva zvinowedzera zvakadii?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro Anenge makomba 10.8 pamwe chete. Pasina zvikanganiso zvekuyera nguva zvaizova 9.2, saka kuyera nguva kuviri kunowedzera 1.6 chete.
Zvikanganiso zvakazvimirira hazviwedzerani zvakananga; masquare azvo ndiwo anowedzerana. Ukuru hwakajairwa hwehuwandu hwose isquare root yesumu yemasquare: 1.4² + 5.5² + 7² + 6² = 1.96 + 30.25 + 49 + 36 = 117.2, uye √117.2 ≈ 10.8.
Pasina zvikanganiso zviviri zvekuyera nguva: √(49 + 36) = √85 ≈ 9.2.
Huwandu hwose hwemakomba 10.8 huri mukati memuganho wemakomba 17 uri patafura iri papeji rino uye hunokosha anenge +34% panhamba imwe. Chidzidzo chakatorwa naThorp: kana kuwira kuchiyambuka madeflector kwava chikanganiso chikuru, kuyera nguva zviri nani kunotenga zvishoma.
Kuseka zvishoma
Fizikisi inoshanda. Nguva yekubheja yakavharwa.
Zvinyorwa
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Goldman, N. Great Gambling Scams.
- Nevada Revised Statutes, chapter 465.