Kutenderera kweRoulette Kwakazvimirira
Kutenderera kwega kwega kunotanga pasina chinhu.
Mhedzisiro yekutenderera kumwe haina simba pakunotevera. Kuverenga kwese pawebhusaiti ino kwakavakirwa pachokwadi ichocho.
Zvinoreva kuzvimirira
p(tsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → pakutenderera 2 | tsvuku pakutenderera 1) = p(tsvuku) = 18/37. Kuisa mamiriro enhoroondo hakuchinji chinhu. Nhamba dzinopisanganoNhamba inopisaNhamba yabuda kakawanda kupfuura zvaitarisirwa munguva pfupi yapfuura. Pavhiri rakarurama haifanotauri chinhu.Verengai zvese →, nhamba dzinotonhoranganoNhamba inotonhoraNhamba isati yabuda kwekutenderera kwakawanda. Haipi ruzivo rupi zvarwo pamusoro pekutenderera kunouya pavhiri rakarurama.Verengai zvese → nemavara “anofanira kubuda” itsananguro dzezvakapfuura, kwete kufanotaura, uye imwe neimwe yakavakirwa pakutaura kwenhema kwekuti kutenderera kweRoulette hakuna kuzvimirira. Nemutemo wemasvomhu, mukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wenhevedzo ipi neipi chigadzirwa chemikana yekutenderera kumwe nekumwe, ndicho chikonzero chete chinobvumira mutemo wekuwedzeranisa papeji yemukana.
Sei “kutenderera kweRoulette hakuna kuzvimirira” zvisiri izvo mufizikisi
BhoramidziyoBhoraBhora diki rinokandwa mumugero richienda rimwe divi nerotor. Mabhora emazuva ano ndeeivorine kana Teflon, 18–21 mm.Verengai zvese → rinokandwa neruoko nekumhanya kunosiyana nezvikamu zvegumi zvemita pasekondi; rinotenderera panzira ine kukwizana kunosiyana neguruva nehunyoro; rinorova imwe yemadeflectormidziyoDeflectorChimwe chezvipingamupinyi zvesimbi paapron zvinoparadzira bhora riri kuwira. Mamwe mazita: canoe, diamond, pin.Verengai zvese → masere nekona yakatarwa nezvose izvozvo; rinosvetuka pamafretmidziyoFretRusvingo rwesimbi pakati pemakomba maviri pavhiri.Verengai zvese → ane simba pabhora riri pa1 m/s risina hurongwa (chaotic) mupfungwa yesainzi. Hapana chinhu chemhedzisiro yakapfuura chinopona chopinda mune chimwe chezvinhu izvi. RotormidziyoRotorChikamu chevhiri chinotenderera chakatakura makomba.Verengai zvese → irotor imwe chete, iyo chete nzvimbo inogona kuvanda kusazvimirira, uye ndiwo mubvunzo wekutsauka kwevhiri.
Zvinotevera kubva pazviri
Sisitimu yega yega yekubheja ibasa remhedzisiro yakapfuura. Kana mhedzisiro yakapfuura isina ruzivo pamusoro pekutenderera kunotevera, hapana basa rakadaro rinogona kuvandudza kukosha kunotarisirwamasvomhuKukosha kunotarisirwaMhedzisiro yepakati pabheti rimwe nekufamba kwenguva refu. −1/37 yemari yakabhejwa pabheti rimwe nerimwe reEurope rakajairwa.Verengai zvese → kwebheti rinotevera. Iyi ndiyo shanduro yemutemo yekupikisa masisitimu, uye ndosaka mapeji enzira achigona kunyorwa pachine nguva kumasisitimu asati agadzirwa: humbowo hahuenderani nemutemo.
Payaizotadza
Chete kana vhiri raitsauka nechimiro kana kuburitsa kwemutambisi kwaifanotaurika. Idzo inyaya dzeLab. Kunyange ipapo, kusazvimirira kunoenderana nefizikisi, kwete nemhedzisiro yakapfuura: gombamidziyoGombaImwe yemakamuri 37 ane nhamba parotor. Mamwe mazita: slot, cup.Verengai zvese → rinotsauka rine mukana wakakura pakutenderera kwega kwega, kwete mukana wakakura mushure mekunge “ratonhora”. Data rekutenderera kwakapfuura raizova humbowo pamusoro pevhiri, chinhu chakasiyana nemaitiro mumhedzisiro.
Kuzvimirira ifungidziro
Kuwedzeranisa mikana kunobvumirwa chete kana zviitiko zvakazvimirira, uye vhiri reRoulette rinowana kodzero iyoyo nefizikisi. Kumwe kunhu zvinofanira kuongororwa. Muna 1999 Sally Clark, gweta rekuEngland, akawanikwa aine mhosva yekuuraya vanakomana vake vaviri vacheche. Chiremba wevana akaudza vatongi kuti mukana wekufa kwevacheche vaviri vari pamubhedha mumhuri yakaita seyake waiva 1 mu73 miriyoni, nhamba yaakawana nekupeta 1 mu8,543, mukana wekufa kumwe, nayo pachayo. Kuipeta nayo pachayo kunoona kufa kuviri ikoko sekutenderera kuviri kwevhiri. Asi hama dzinogovana majini neimba, saka mushure mekufa kumwe kwemucheche, kwechipiri kune mukana wakakura zvikuru kupfuura kwekutanga. Royal Statistical Society yakazvitaura pachena muna 2001, uye mhosva yaClark yakadzimwa pakukwidza kwechipiri muna 2003, mushure mekunge humbowo hwekurapa hwakanga husina kuburitswa hwaonekwa. Hunacek (2025) anoshandisa nyaya iyi kudzidzisa mutemo wakavakirwa peji rino: wedzeranisai chete zvakazvimirira.
Kuzvimirira nematafura eRNG
Matafura esoftware anotora mhedzisiro yega yega kubva kujenareta yenhamba dzisina hurongwa yakasimbiswa inoedzwa chaizvo pahunhu uhu: kuzvimirira kwenhevedzo mukudhirowa kwemamiriyoni. Vhiri rinofamba chishongo. Tafura yeRNG yaiva nekusazvimirira yaizotadza kusimbiswa, bvunzo yakaoma kupfuura chero ipi zvayo inogona kuitwa nemutambi.
Mibvunzo
Kwete pagomba. Zvimwe, nekuenderana kukuru, pachikamu chevhirivhiriChikamu chevhiriRutivi rwemakomba akatevedzana pavhiri, rwakasiyana neboka riri patafura yekubhejera.Verengai zvese → kakawanda kupfuura mhanza; onai Siginecha yeMutambisi weRoulette muLab. Masitudhiyo anochinja maburitsiro kuti azvidzivise.
Pakuongorora kutsauka mukutenderera kwezviuru, mupfungwa. Pakutenderera kunotevera, kwete.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Bheti rinoiswa kusati kwaitwa kutenderera kuviri rinobhadhara mubhadharo wakaenzana kana nhamba yechipiri yakakwirira kupfuura yekutanga. Kuenzana kunorasikirwa, uye 0 inoverengwa senhamba yakaderera kupfuura dzose. Rinodhura marii pavhiri reEurope?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro 2.70% chaiyo, zvakafanana netsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →.
Kutenderera kuviri kwakazvimirira, saka nhamba yechipiri ine mukana wakaenzana wekuva yakakwirira kana yakaderera kupfuura yekutanga. Chimwe chiitiko chete kuenzana, nhamba imwe chete kaviri, nemukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → we1/37.
Saka bheti rinokunda nemukana we(1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, chaizvo mukana wetsvuku, uye rinodhura 2.70% imwe chete iyoyo.
Dai maigona kuriisa mushure mekuona nhamba yekutanga raizova chipo: mushure me0 rinokunda ka36 pa37. Ndosaka bheti rakadai richifanira kuvharwa kutenderera kwekutanga kusati kwaitika.
Kuseka zvishoma
Kutenderera kwega kwega kunotanga pasina chinhu. Kuverenga kwese pano kunoenderana nazvo.
Zvinyorwa
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”