Nzira yeD'Alembert paRoulette
Nzira yeD’Alembert paRoulette inowedzera yuniti imwe mushure mekurasikirwa uye inobvisa imwe mushure mekukunda.
Haikundi vhiri. Ndiyo progressionnziraProgressionMutemo upi zvawo unochinja mari yekubheja zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura. Maprogression anokwira mushure mekurasikirwa anoikwidza kana mukarasikirwa; maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda anoikwidza kana mukakunda.Verengai zvese → yakajairika yakatwasuka kupfuura dzose: mari yakabhejwa inokwira zvishoma nezvishoma, kudonha kwemari kuri pakati nepakati, uye chikamu chekasino hachibatwi.
Fambai nesisitimu
Kurasikirwa kunokwidza nhanho imwe. Kukunda kunodzosera nhanho imwe shure.
Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.
Sisitimu yeD’Alembert paRoulette, nhanho nenhanho
Bhejai yunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe. Mukarasikirwa, bheti rinotevera rinokura neyuniti imwe. Mukakunda, rinoderera neyuniti imwe, risingambodzika pasi peimwe. Ndizvo chete. Fungidzirai chitsiga chevana: kurasikirwa kwega kwega kunokwidza mari yakabhejwa nhanho imwe uye kukunda kwega kwega kunoidzosa. Chitendero chiri pasi pazvo ndechekuti kukunda nekurasikirwa zvichaenzana, saka mari yakabhejwa ichadzokera pakutanga. Kukwezva kwacho ndekwekuti vaviri vega vega vekukunda kumwe nekurasikirwa kumwe pamari yakabhejwa yakavakidzana vanopa +1 yuniti: rasikirwai 3, kundai 4, mhedzisiro +1.
Sesheni inoita sei?
Yakapfava, nemari yakabhejwa inokwira zvishoma nezvishoma. Sezvo kurasikirwa kuchipfuura kukunda 19 kusvika ku18 pamabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana, mari yakabhejwa inokwira pasesheni refu. Nekuti mari yakabhejwa yakakwirira kana manga muchirasikirwa, uye yakaderera kana muchikunda, avhareji yemari yakabhejwa panguva dzekurasikirwa inopfuura avhareji yepanguva dzekukunda. Masesheni akatsetseka kupfuura MartingalenziraMartingaleProgression inopeta bheti kaviri mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega. Onai chikamu cheNzira kuti munzwisise zvainoita nezvaisingaite.Verengai zvese →, nekudonha kwemarimariKudonha kwemariKudonha kubva pakakwirira mari yekutamba kusvika pakaderera kunotevera mukati mesesheni. Kudonha kukuru ndiko kudonha kwakanyanya kwakadaro.Verengai zvese → kuri pakati nepakati uye pasina mawere, uye anorasikirwa zvishoma kupfuura kubheja kwakaenzananziraKubheja kwakaenzanaKubheja mari imwe chete pakutenderera kwega kwega. Chiyero chinoenzaniswa nacho progression yega yega.Verengai zvese → paavhareji nekuti avhareji yemari yakabhejwa yakakwirira.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- median −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Sisitimu yeD’Alembert inoshanda here?
Kwete. Sesheni yakaenzana inokunda, asi masesheni haarambe akaenzana. Mushure mekukunda w nekurasikirwa l pamari yakabhejwa yakavakidzana mhedzisiro chaiyo i w − l mayuniti pamwe nekugadziridza kwekuti manga muri papi pamanera. Kana w = l mhedzisiro iri +w mayuniti chaiwo, izvo zvinoita sepurofiti yakavimbiswa. Dambudziko nderekuti w = l hachisi chiitiko chinotarisirwa: pakutenderera 37 munotarisira kukunda 18 nekurasikirwa 19. Kurasikirwa kumwe kwekuwedzera pamari yakabhejwa yakwira kusvika, semuenzaniso, mayuniti 8 kunodhura kupfuura vaviri vasere ve+1 vakawanikwa. Tarisiro inobuda iri −1/37 yemari yose yakabhejwamariMari yose yakabhejwaMari yese yakabhejwa musesheni kana munguva yakati, kusanganisira mari yakakundwa yakabhejwazve. Mamwe mazita: handle, action.Verengai zvese →, sezvazvinofanira kuva.
Sei masesheni mapfupi achiwanzokunda?
Chiitiko chakaenzana chikamu chemutemo mumwe chete unovhara sesheni yega yega. Daidzai D huwandu hwekurasikirwa bvisa huwandu hwekukunda. Sesheni yekutenderera N inotanga neyuniti imwe inopera pa(N − D²)/2 − D mayuniti, chero bedzi pasina bheti reyuniti imwe rinokunda (mushure mekukunda kwakadaro mari yakabhejwa haina pekudzikira). Kana D = 0 izvozvo i+N/2, +w yechikamu chiri pamusoro. Kurasikirwa kwega kwega kwekuwedzera kunoverengwa kwakapetwa nekwakwo: mushure mekutenderera 100, D ye4 ichiri kusiya +38 mayuniti, D ye8 inosiya +10, uye D ye10 inosiya −10. Mukana woga unoparadzira D nekanenge √N, gumi mushure mekutenderera 100, uye mumutambo usina zerovhiriZeroGomba rimwe chete rakasvibira risingafukidzwi nebheti remubhadharo wakaenzana, redozeni kana rekoramu; ndiko kunobva chikamu chekasino. Mamwe mazita: zero imwe, 0.Verengai zvese → purofiti yemasesheni mazhinji akaenzana nekurasikirwa kwemashoma asina kuenzana zvinodzimana chaizvo. Zero inowedzera kurasikirwa kumwe kwekuwedzera pakutenderera 37 kwega kwega paavhareji, uye nekuti D inopetwa nekwayo mutengo wayo unokura nokukurumidza kupfuura sesheni. Masesheni mazhinji ekusvika pakutenderera 100 anopera ari mberi; avhareji haimbodaro, uye pamusoro pekutenderera mazana mashoma masesheni mazhinji anorasikirwawo.
Ko kana mukaipindura?
Contra-D’Alembert, inonziwo reverse D’Alembert, inowedzera yuniti mushure mekukunda uye inobvisa imwe mushure mekurasikirwa. Inotevedzera yekutanga chaizvo mukupesana. Chero bedzi pasina bheti reyuniti imwe rinorasikirwa, sesheni yekutenderera N inopera pa(D² − N)/2 + D mayuniti, apo D zvino kukunda bvisa kurasikirwa. Sesheni yakaenzana inorasikirwa hafu yeyuniti pakutenderera, uye mutsara wekukunda chete uri mberi zvikuru kwekurasikirwa ndiwo unounza purofiti. Saka masesheni mazhinji anorasikirwa zvishoma uye mashoma anokunda zvakawanda, chimiro chakapesana neyekutanga, uye avhareji iri 2.70% imwe chete yemari yakabhejwa.
d’Alembert aiva ani?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, nyanzvi yesvomhu uye mupepeti pamwe chete weEncyclopédie, akataura muchinyorwa cha1754 kuti mushure memutsara wemusoro, muswe unova nemukana wakawanda. Akanga akanganisa, uye kukanganisa kunotakura zita rake imhando yekukanganisa kwemubheji. Sisitimu yeD’Alembert paRoulette yakazotumidzwa zita rake gare gare, nevabheji vaive nechitendero ichocho. Haana kuigadzira uye pamwe angadai asina kuitsigira.
Pane dzimwe mhando here?
Contra-D’Alembert, iri pamusoro, inoita seParolinziraParoliProgression inokwira mushure mekukunda: petai kaviri mushure mekukunda, dzokerai pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu zvichitevedzana. Rimwe zita: reverse Martingale.Verengai zvese → yakapfava. Vamwe vatambi vanowedzera mayuniti maviri mushure mekurasikirwa uye vanobvisa imwe mushure mekukunda, izvo zvinoita kuti manera arebe akananga kuMartingale. Mhando dzose dzine kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → kumwe chete payuniti yakabhejwa.
Simulator · D'Alembert
Masesheni 2,000 emabheti emubhadharo wakaenzana kubva pamari yekutamba ye$1,000.
Bheti rekutanga $10 · muganho wetafura $500 · kutenderera 100 pasesheni
Mutsara wekurasikirwa unouya kangani
Bheti remubhadharo wakaenzana pavhiri rezero imwe rinorasikirwa kutenderera 19 pa37. Mutsara wega wega mukana wekuti kutenderera kwakatevedzana kwakapihwa kwese kurasikirwe, uye zvakarasikirwa nemutambi weD’Alembert, anowedzera bheti rekutanga rimwe mushure mekurasikirwa kwega kwega, panguva iyoyo.
| kurasikirwa zvakatevedzana | mukana | kanenge 1 pa | zvarasika kusvika pari zvino | bheti rinotevera |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Mukana i19/37 wakawanzwa nawo pachawo kamwe pakurasikirwa kwega kwega, kuverengwa kubva pakutenderera kumwe kwakapihwa. Sesheni refu ine kutenderera kwakawanda panogona kutanga mutsara wakadai, saka mumanheru ose zvinogoneka zvikuru kupfuura zvinoratidzwa nemutsara mumwe.
Mibvunzo
Haina mawere, izvo zvinoiita progression inokwira mushure mekurasikirwa yakapfava kupfuura dzose. Haidhuri zvishoma pane kubheja kwakaenzana; inodhura zvishoma kupfuura.
Muganho wetafuratafuraMuganho wetafuraBheti diki nerikuru kupfuura ese anobvumirwa. Rikuru ndiro rinomisa maprogression ekupeta kaviri.Verengai zvese → chete kana mari yekutambamariMari yekutambaMari yose yakachengeterwa kutamba. Kutonga mari yekutamba kuri kusarudza kuti mungaisa pangozi yakawanda sei pabheti rimwe nepasesheni imwe.Verengai zvese → yenyu. Pasesheni refu yekurasikirwa inokwira zvakadzikama.
Kutamba neMasvomhu
Edzai izvi imi pachenyu pekutanga. Mhinduro yega yega yakapetwa; ivhurei kana magadzirira.
Munotamba D’Alembert patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese → kwekutenderera 50, muchitanga neyunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → imwe, uye hamumbokundi bheti reyuniti imwe (mushure mekukunda kwakadaro mari yekubheja yaizoshaya pekudzikira). Munopedza nekurasikirwa 27 nekukunda 23. Muri pamusoro kana pasi nemayuniti mangani? Uye nekurasikirwa 29 nekukunda 21?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro +13 mayuniti nekurasikirwa 27, −15 mayuniti ne29. Kutenderera kuviri pamakumi mashanu kuchienda kune rimwe divi kunodhura mayuniti 28.
Daidzai D kurasikirwa kubvisa kukunda. Mhedzisiro i(N − D²)/2 − D pakutenderera N. Nekurasikirwa 27 nekukunda 23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Ne29 ne21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Nei mutemo uchishanda: mari yekubheja inogara iri yuniti imwe pamwe nekurasikirwa kusvika parizvino kubvisa kukunda kusvika parizvino. Kurasikirwa kwega kwega kunodzimwa nekukunda kunotevera kunoita vaviri, kurasikirwa s wozokunda s + 1, izvo zvinopa +1 yuniti, sezvinoratidzwa netafura iri pamusoro. Pakutenderera N, vaviri (N − D)/2 vakadaro vanoumbwa, vanokosha +(N − D)/2. Kurasikirwa D kwakasara kwakaiswa pamari 1, 2 … D pakukwira uye hakuna kumbodzimwa; kunodhura 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Pamwe chete: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Square ndiyo nyaya yose. Sesheni yakaenzana inobhadhara hafu yeyuniti pakutenderera, uye nhanho yega yega inobva pakuenzana inodhura kupfuura yaiva pamberi payo.
Munotamba D’Alembert yakapidigurwa patsvuku kwekutenderera 100, muchitanga neyuniti imwe, uye hapana bheti reyuniti imwe rinombororasikirwa. Munopedza nekukunda 52 nekurasikirwa 48. Mumirepi? Uye nekukunda 60 nekurasikirwa 40?
Ratidza mhinduro
Mhinduro −38 mayuniti nekukunda 52, +170 ne60. Kutungamira kudiki pakukunda kuchiri kurasikirwa; kukuru chete ndiko kunobhadhara.
Daidzai D kukunda kubvisa kurasikirwa. Mhedzisiro i(D² − N)/2 + D pakutenderera N.
Kukunda 52 nekurasikirwa 48: D = 4, saka (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Kukunda 60 nekurasikirwa 40: D = 20, saka (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Nei: kukunda kwega kwega kunodzimwa nekurasikirwa kunotevera kunoita vaviri, kukunda pa s wozorasikirwa pa s + 1, izvo zvinopa −1. Kukunda D kwakasara kwakaiswa pamari 1, 2 … D pakukwira uye hakumbodzimwi; kunounza D(D + 1)/2. Pakutenderera N, vaviri (N − D)/2 vanoumbwa, saka huwandu hwose i D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ndiwo mutemo weD’Alembert yekutanga nezviratidzo zvakapidigurwa: ikoko, kuenzana kunokunda hafu yeyuniti pakutenderera uye kusaenzana kunorangwa; pano, kuenzana kunodhura hafu yeyuniti pakutenderera uye kusaenzana kunopiwa mubayiro.
Kuseka zvishoma
Yakatumidzwa zita renyanzvi yesvomhu yakakanganisa nezvemari yesimbi.
Zvinyorwa
- RouletteDoc. Tsananguro yenzira nemienzaniso.
- Roulette77. Tsananguro yenzira nemienzaniso.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.