Mienzaniso Nhanho neNhanho · Muenzaniso nhanho nenhanho · maminitsi 6

Muenzaniso: 1-3-2-6

Mari yakabhejwa ye1, 3, 2 ne6 mayuniti pakukunda kunotevedzana, yodzokera ku1 pakurasikirwa kupi nokupi. Mutsara weprogressionnziraProgressionMutemo upi zvawo unochinja mari yekubheja zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yakapfuura. Maprogression anokwira mushure mekurasikirwa anoikwidza kana mukarasikirwa; maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda anoikwidza kana mukakunda.Verengai zvese → inokwira, kutenderera nekutenderera.

Mhinduro pfupi

Sesheni yakasimulatwa yekutenderera 60 ye1-3-2-6 pa$10 payuniti patsvukubhetiTsvukuBheti remubhadharo wakaenzana panhamba 18 tsvuku. ChiFrench: rouge.Verengai zvese →. Kuedza makumi matatu nematatu: gumi nematanhatu kwakapfuura nhanho yekutanga, kunomwe kwakapfuura nhanho yechipiri, kuviri kwakapera kuchiwana +$120 kumwe nekumwe. Pakupedzisira −$50 mushure mekunge takambokwira +$80. Paroli ine zororo rakavakirwa mukati.

yuniti

$10 patsvuku

mutsara

1 → 3 → 2 → 6

p(kupedza)

5.6%

pundutso pakupedza

+$120

Fambai nesisitimu

Kukunda kunofambisa nhanho imwe mberi. Kurasikirwa, kana kukunda kwechina, kunodzokera kwekutanga.

bheti rinotevera1mhedzisiro kusvika parizvino0kutenderera0

Mari dzakabhejwa nemhedzisiro zviri mumayuniti ebheti rekutanga.

Hurongwa

Bhejai yunitimariYunitiMari yehwaro inoshandiswa nesisitimu kana nemutambi. Maprogression anotsanangurwa nemayuniti kuitira kuti ashande patafura ipi zvayo.Verengai zvese → 1. Pakukunda, bhejai 3 (2 dziri patafura parizvino pamwe ne1 yedu). Pakukunda kwechipiri, bhejai 2 motora dzimwe dzese. Pakukunda kwechitatu, bhejai 6. Kukunda kwechina kunopedza mutsara kuchiwana +12 mayuniti; kurasikirwa kupi nokupi kunodzokera ku1. Mutsara wakarongwa zvekuti kurasikirwa panhanho yechipiri kunodya mayuniti 2 chaiwo, panhanho yechitatu kuchiri kutisiya tiri +2 (tiri +4 mushure menhanho yechipiri uye tinoisa 2 panjodzi), uye panhanho yechina kunotisiya takaenzana (tiri +6 uye tinoisa 6 panjodzi). Chinokwezva ndechekuti kurasikirwa panhanho yechitatu neyechina kunodya mari shoma yedu pachedu.

Kutenderera 1–30

Kuedza gumi nesere. Gumi kwakarasikirwa panhanho yekutanga (−$10 kumwe nekumwe), kushanu panhanho yechipiri (−$20 kumwe nekumwe), kuviri panhanho yechitatu (+$20 kumwe nekumwe), kumwe kwakapera pakutenderera 27–30 (T T T T, +$120). Pakupedzisira −$40 mushure mekutenderera 30, takambova −$160 pakutenderera 26. Mutsara wakapera wakanzwika sekunge sisitimu iri kushanda; yaive 5.6% yasvika panguva yayo.

kuedzamutsaramari yakabhejwamari yedu iri panjodzipundutso

1R10$10−$10

2K R10, 30$20−$20

3K K R10, 30, 20$0+$20

4–17kazhinji R panhanho 1≤ 30≤ $20−$150

18K K K K10, 30, 20, 60$0+$120

mushure me30kuedza 18, 1 kwakapera−$40

Kutenderera 31–60

Kuedza gumi nekushanu, kumwe kwakapera pakutenderera 44–47 kuchiwana +$120, kuviri kwakasvika panhanho yechina kukarasikirwa ipapo (kumwe nekumwe $0 pundutso: +$60 yakakundwa, ipapo $60 yakabhejwa ikarasika). Pakupedzisira −$10 muchikamu ichi; mhedzisiro −$50; pamusoro-soro +$80 pakutenderera 47. Kupedza kuviri mukuedza 33, kuchienzaniswa ne1.8 kunotarisirwa: muenzaniso wakanaka.

Maprogression anokwira mushure mekukunda: sesheni iyi nedzimwe gumi neimwe dzakaita sayomhedzisiro vs kutanga

masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, bhuruu yakajeka median, masampuru 82 akachenuruka · fambisai pamusoro pechati kuti muone maquantile pakutenderera

p10 −$800
p25 −$520
median −$240
p75 +$70
p90 +$350

masesheni 1,000 × kutenderera 500 · y-axis yakachekwa kusvika papercentile ye1–99 (magumo −$1,000 kusvika +$1,200) · kutenderera 500 · $10 kutanga · mubhadharo wakaenzana

Kurasikirwa kudiki kunoenderera, kusvetuka kwepano neapo. 1-3-2-6 neParoli zvine chimiro chimwe chete; mutsara unongochinja saizi.

Maakaundi

Mari yose yakabhejwa inenge $1,200 kuchienzaniswa ne$600 nekubheja kwakaenzana. Kurasikirwa kunotarisirwamasvomhuKurasikirwa kunotarisirwaKukosha kunotarisirwa kwakapetwa nemari yose yakabhejwa; mari yepakati inorasika musesheni kana munguva yakati.Verengai zvese → $32; chaiko −$50, mukati mestandard deviationmasvomhuStandard deviationMudzi wesikweya wemusiyano; chinhambwe chakajairwa chemhedzisiro kubva pakukosha kunotarisirwa.Verengai zvese → imwe. Magadzirirwo emutsara anoreva kuti mari zhinji iri patafura mukuedza kurefu imari yatakakunda kutenderera kuviri kwapfuura, uye ndiyo nyengedzo inoita kuti zvinzwike zvakanaka. Imari yedu kubva panguva iyo mutambisi anoibhadhara.

Machipi akabhadharwa kutenderera kuviri kwapfuura atove mari yemutambi pachake.

Zvinoratidzwa nesesheni

1-3-2-6 iParolinziraParoliProgression inokwira mushure mekukunda: petai kaviri mushure mekukunda, dzokerai pakutanga mushure mekurasikirwa kana mushure mekukunda katatu zvichitevedzana. Rimwe zita: reverse Martingale.Verengai zvese → ine saizi dzemari yakabhejwa dzakagadziriswa kuti nhanho dzekupedzisira dzinzwike sedzemahara. MukanamasvomhuMukanaMukana wemhedzisiro, kubva pa0 kusvika pa1 kana 0% kusvika 100%. Nhamba imwe: 1/37 = 2.70%.Verengai zvese → wekupedza (18/37)⁴ = 5.6% nemubhadharomariMubhadharoZvinodzoserwa nebheti rakunda, zvinotaurwa se“X kusvika ku1” pamusoro pemari yakabhejwa inodzoserwa.Verengai zvese → wekupedza wemayuniti 12 zvakatemwa nemasvomhu; maitiro ekubheja anongosarudza kuti 2.70% isingadzivisiki inogoverwa sei pakati pekurasikirwa kudiki kwakawanda nekukunda kukuru kushoma. Kumutambi anofarira kutevera mutsara, haina kukuvadza. Haisi nzira inoshanda.

Mibvunzo

Sei 1-3-2-6 kwete 1-2-4-8?

1-2-4-8 iParoli kusvika pakukunda kuna; inoisa murwi wese panjodzi panhanho yega yega. 1-3-2-6 inochengeta mayuniti 2 mushure menhanho yechipiri, saka kurasikirwa panhanho yechitatu hakudyi mari yenyu. Kutarisira kumwe chete.

Sesheni yakazara inowanzoita sei?

Yakadzikira zvishoma, ine kusvetuka kumwe kana kuviri. Inenge sesheni mbiri pashanu dzinopera dziri pamberi mushure mekutenderera 60 neyuniti iyi.

Ndingaenderera mberi here mushure mekupedza?

Vamwe vatambi vanoenderera 1-3-2-6-12. Nhanho inotevera inokunda 2.7% yenguva (tsvuku shanu dzakatevedzana) uye chimiro chinoramba chakafanana.

Kuseka zvishoma

Kukunda kuna kwakatevedzana: 5.6%. Mutsara unongosarudza kuti zvinonzwika sei.

Zvinyorwa

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Chitsauko 13, roulette.

yakaongororwa 2026-09-28modhi: yeEurope, zero imwemaitiro ↗zvinyorwa ↗