LABMUEDZO 06df = 36α = 0.05seed 99

Kutsauka kweVhiri reRoulette

Vhiri reRoulette rinotsauka rinofarira mamwe makomba nekuda kwekukanganisika kwechimiro: fret yakasununguka, rotor isina kuenzana, makomba akasakara. Kutsauka kwevhiri reRoulette kuripo uye kwakamboshandiswa. Dambudziko nderekuti vhiri rakarurama zvachose rinoburitsa “nhamba dzinopisa” nguva dzese, saka mubvunzo haumbove wekuti nhamba inopisa here, asi wekuti maitiro ese akatsveyama kupfuura zvinobvumirwa nemhanza here.

1. Torai sampuru yevhiri rakarurama

Kutenderera kwakadhirowa kubva kuvhiri rakafananidzirwa risina kutsauka zvachose. Chinjai saizi yesampuru motarisa gomba rinopisa zvikuru.

kutenderera370

zvinotarisirwa pagomba10.0

gomba rinopisa zvikuru20 · kubuda 16 (4.32%)

rinopisa zvikuru vs zvinotarisirwa+60% · 1.9σ

chi-square · p32.8 · 0.622

mutongohapana humbowo hwekutsauka

2. Zvakaonekwa nezvinotarisirwa

Bhawa rega rega igomba rakatevedzana sepavhiri. Mutsetse wemadhashi ndihwo huwandu hunotarisirwa, n/37. Bhendi rine mumvuri i±2 standard deviation: pavhiri rakarurama gomba rimwe chete pamakumi maviri rinobuda kunze kwaro nemhanza chete.

0makomba akatevedzana sepavhiri →26

3. Bvunzo yeChi-square

Bvunzo inowedzera kuti gomba rega rega riri kure zvakadii nezvinotarisirwa, zvakapetwa square uye zvakayerwa. Pavhiri rakarurama huwandu uhu hunotevera chi-square distribution ine madhigirii erusununguko 36; p-value iri pasi pe0.05 inowanzonzi yakakosha (significant).

χ² = Σ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ Eᵢ = n/37 df = 36
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622

Yambiro pamusoro pesaizi yesampuruPasi pekutenderera 1,000 bvunzo haina simba rekuona kutsauka kwechokwadi, uye mhedzisiro “yakakosha” pa p < 0.05 ichaitika nemhanza 1 pamasampuru 20 akarurama amunotarisa. Kuedza mavhiri akawanda, kana kuedza vhiri rimwe chete kakawanda kusvika rapasa, kunovimbisa mhedzisiro yenhema (false positives).

4. Kutenderera kungani kwamungada

Kutenderera kunodiwa kuti kuonekwe gomba rimwe rinobuda kakawanda kupfuura 1/37, padanho re5% one-sided ne80% power. Gomba rinobuda 1 mu35 panzvimbo pe1 mu37 raizova mukana wakasimba kumutambi, uye zvinotora makumi ezviuru ekutenderera kwakanyorwa kuti zvisimbiswe.

chiyero chechokwadimukana wemutambikutenderera kunodiwapakutenderera 40/h

1 mu25+44.0%1,10828 h

1 mu30+20.0%4,392110 h

1 mu33+9.1%15,747394 h

1 mu35+2.9%69,4611,737 h

Kusimbisa kutsauka kunoreva kunyora kutenderera husiku hwotevera humwe, makumi ezviuru ako.

Maitiro

Kutora sampuru. Kudhirowa kwakaenzana kubva pamakomba 37 nejenareta ine seed (mulberry32, seed 99), saka peji rinogona kudzokororwa.

Bvunzo. Pearson chi-square goodness of fit, madhigirii erusununguko 36, p-value kubva kuregularized incomplete gamma function.

Simba (power). Normal approximation yebvunzo yeone-proportion, α = 0.05 one-sided, power 0.80.

Muganho wenyaya. Kuona nenhamba chete. Zvikonzero zvechimiro neongororo inoenderana nezvikamu (kwete makomba) zvinotsanangurwa muOngororo yeZvikamu zveVhiri.

Kuseka zvishoma

Vhiri rakarurama rinoburitsa nhamba dzinopisa husiku hwese. Kuratidza kutsauka kunoda makumi ezviuru ekutenderera.

Zvinyorwa

Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Ch. 13, Roulette.